Col R Hariharan
Sri Lanka Perspectives May 2022| South Asia Security Trends, June 2022|The happenings in Sri Lanka’s
turbulent month of May have many wheels within wheels of political intrigue and
chicanery. It has set many precedents in Sri Lanka history. Nationwide public
protest against the Rajapaksas bringing a change in government leadership with
Ranil Wickremesinghe replacing Mahinda Rajapaksa as prime minister. The newly
installed PM had neither proven parliamentary majority nor constitutional
authority is perhaps an inconvenient detail. But the biggest loser was
democratic polity with the vast majority of people losing faith not only in the
Rajapaksas, but in the country’s decaying political system as well.
American President Franklin D
Roosevelt once said, “the future lies with those wise political leaders, who
realize that the great public is more interested in government than in
politics.” Apparently, the Rajapaksas have not read Roosevelt’s words of
wisdom. They cogitated for over a month on how to manage the public protests
that wanted them out of office quit for their miserable failure of governance.
They tried out various political moves but they failed to satisfy neither the
political class nor protesting public.
PM Mahinda Rajapaksa’s
resignation came about rather ignominiously. The last hurrah of Mahinda led his
acolytes and goons gathered to show their solidarity on May 9, misfired when
they went on a rampage against protestors in Temple Trees area and the GotaGoGama (Gota
Go Village) at Galle Face Green in Colombo. With the police benignly watching
from the side lines, the goons attacked everyone, including handicapped war
veterans, destroying property and injuring scores.
Apparently, the
Mahinda-acolytes game plan had not factored the deep sense of resentment among
the public against them. Enraged anti-Rajapaksa protestors went on a
meticulously planned retaliation, to chase and beat up the goons, damage the
buses that ferried them and set fire to as many as 28 properties including
houses of pro-Mahinda political leaders and parliament members. The retaliatory
violence extended till early hours of May 10. Army called upon by distressed
ruling party politicians arrived rather late, after arsonists reduced
properties to ashes. It had one positive outcome: the President who was
out of touch with the reality of the ground situation seems to have now
realised that the Argalaya (struggle) cannot be wished away by
politics; results beneficial to the public matters.
Peeved Sri Lanka Podujana
Peramuna (SLPP) MPs met the President on May 14 to complain about the failure
of the armed forces to respond to their call for help to quell violence both in
Mirihana on March 31 and on May 9 -10. A highpower military
committee of former chiefs of three services has been appointed to look into
lapses of the forces in these incidents. Going by the fate of such “high power
committees”, nobody will be surprised if the administration fails to read its
recommendations.
The bottom line in the whole
sordid tale of Sri Lankan version of the Game of Thrones is, brothers
Gotabaya and Basil have sacrificed PM Mahinda to pacify the public and install
a more amenable leader to partly appease the protestors. So, what has been
achieved by PM Wickremesinghe since he became PM on May 12?
Firstly, the five times PM, if
we count his truncated tenures in the Yahapalana government, has partly
relieved the pressure of public protests on the President. However, the
protestors reminded everyone they were very much alive by taking out a huge
procession of people from all sections of society in Colombo to mark the 50th day
of protests on May 29. This shows the popular Aragalaya (struggle) movement has
scored a success with the ouster of Mahinda. If led imaginatively, the
Aragalaya has the potential to re-energize the movement demanding Gotabaya’s
resignation. This factor will have to be borne in mind by not only
the President or PM Wickremesinghe, but all other stakeholders.
Secondly, the President’s ploy
of bringing in Ranil as PM, has confused the opposition which was vociferously
demanding Gotabaya’s resignation. It also split the ranks of the main
opposition SJB, after Ranil said his acceptance of office was conditional to
replacing 20th Amendment to the constitution that concentrated
all powers in the hands of the executive president. The SLFP led by former
president Sirisena, after some posturing on the side lines, is not only
supporting PM Wickremesinghe and the all-party government. The other parties,
barring the weakened SJB and the JVP, which has questioned the
constitutionality of installing Ranil as PM, are likely to support the
government. That is likely to include the Tamil National Alliance, which would
expect some palliative action from the President and PM to satisfy Tamil
aspirations.
Thirdly, the biggest advantage
PM Wickremesinghe enjoys is his positive equation, with better articulation,
with India, the US, EU and the West. Starting with India, they were among
the first diplomats to call upon the newly anointed PM. Domestically, this may
not be a great advantage. But internationally, it will help speed up the
processing of financial restructuring proposals from International Monetary
Fund (IMF) and assistance from Asian Development Bank (ADB) etc. Measures are
also afoot for negotiating with creditors to restructure the loan terms.
PM Wickremesinghe has also
sought out China’s to help in seeing through the economic crisis.
In the midst of the fuel crisis, China had made an offer to provide
diesel stocks for emergency use from stocks held in Singapore, but Sri Lanka
did not react to the offer. PM Wickremesinghe is now said to have directed the
officials to discuss with China regarding their offer which was made before he
assumed office. The Finance Ministry’s discussions with the China Development
Bank and the China EXIM Bank to postpone repayment of outstanding loans also
appear to have not been followed up by the Ministry. The China International
Development Cooperation Assistance (CIDCA) had offered RMB 500 million as
emergency assistance. China has also dispatched a shipment of rice to reach Sri
Lanka.
In a televised address on May
29, the PM said the main issues in the country are not limited to the financial
sector; in the political sphere there are two issues – one to do away with the
20th Amendment (20A) to the constitution reducing the executive
president’s accountability to the parliament and implement the 19th Amendment
once again which was abolished. He said “the party leaders are currently
preparing the 21st Amendment” to carry this out.”
He also identified abolishing
Executive Presidency as the second issue. He left it to the party leaders to
decide on when and how to carry this out. He added “The Executive President has
been given more powers. The main allegation today is that the Parliament has
not acted to prevent the economic crisis.” He said the structure of
Parliament must be changed to create a new system by combining the existing
system of Parliament or the Westminster system and the system of State Councils
so that Parliament can participate in governing the country. His proposal include
the setting up of several new committees as well as an all-party National
Council with youth participation.
Politically, the PM’s rhetoric
touched the right notes with democrats everywhere. But in Sri Lanka where
political heavies play the game of thrones, can the PM implement such radical
changes? As the JVP, perhaps only a new constitution can include incorporate
changes. The priority is to empower the parliament to control the economy by
abolishing 20A and reintroducing 19A. Nothing less will satisfy the agitated
public, unless it is the resignation of Gotabaya.
The moot point is, can PM
Wickremesinghe with no political stake in parliament serving at the invitation
(or pleasure) of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, successfully implement his plan?
A more apt question will be, will the President and his SLPP cohorts, who
worked hard to restore full executive powers of the president, agree to the
proposal to reinsert 19A?
To set the record straight, it
was Ranil as PM of the Yahapalana government, who ensured the 19A to whittle
down executive presidency was passed in the parliament. Ranil as a seasoned
wheeler-dealer in Sri Lanka’s convoluted politics, is perhaps one man who can
pull such a rabbit out of his hat. But he is also a man who survives by making political
compromises. So, the rabbit he pulls out may turn out to be a guinea pig, after
political consultations of parliamentary parties give it a final form
during the week.[Written on May 31, 2022]
[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism,
served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri
Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies.
Email: haridirect@gmail.com Website: https://col.hariharan.info]
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