Even as the rule of law continues to be flouted, the appointment of Ranil Wickremesinghe as Lankan PM could salvage the economic crisis dogging it. As Lanka’s pointsman, it will be an ordeal by fire for him
By Col
R Hariharan | Special | India Legal | January 17, 2022
Interim Sri
Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, on his sixth term, has just
completed a month in office. Nobody expects the newly anointed PM to come
charging on a white steed like a modern-day Sir Galahad to save the country
from economic bankruptcy. From the start, there is a lot of skepticism about
his success as PM as the fully empowered President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is riding
on his back. Many protesters see him as a proxy of Gotabaya, who refuses to
resign.
A second reason
for doubts about Wickremesinghe’s credentials as PM is that he is serving
at the pleasure of the president, who is seen as the source of Sri Lanka’s
economic woes. The PM draws his parliamentary support from Rajapaksa’s Sri
Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and its cohorts, as well as the UNP’s
traditional political rivals, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).
The last time Wickremesinghe served as PM of the uneasy
UNP-SLFP coalition, with SLFP leader Maithripala Sirisena as president, the
Yahapalana (good governance) government did not cover itself with glory. The
president and the PM spent more time wrestling for power than delivering the
good governance they had promised the people. They had no time to heed early
warnings of an impending attack by homegrown Islamic terrorists that led to the
infamous Easter Sunday attacks which resulted in the avoidable death of nearly
300 people. In a way, the Easter Sunday attacks paved the way for Gotabaya
Rajapaksa to be elected president and the Rajapaksas to bounce back to power
with massive support from Sinhala nationalist voters in the last presidential
and parliamentary elections.
In
this respect, Wickremesinghe’s handicaps remind one of Sammy Davis Jr, the
legendary American pop singer of the 90s. When asked about his golf handicap,
the singer quipped: “My handicap? Man, I am a one-eyed Black Jew! That’s my
handicap.”
A SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threats) analysis of the PM is
revealing. Wickremesinghe’s strength is his political experience of over half a
century. During this period, he has ridden both the crests and troughs of Sri
Lanka’s elitist politics and its by-products—cycles of ethnic conflict,
revolutionary insurgency, political violence and periodic assertion of
hegemonic Sinhala Buddhist nationalism to the detriment of religious and ethnic
harmony.
Probably, the secret of Wickremesinghe’s survival in the acrimonious island
politics is his mastery of using the Middle Path of Theravada Buddhism
(Majjhima-patipadā in Pali). It advocates avoiding the extremes of
self-gratification on the one hand and self-mortification on the other. Middle
Path in politics can be construed as not taking hard decisions that could tread
on many feet. It has not only helped him to survive, but also remain relevant
as a man for all seasons both in victory and defeat in the turbulent politics
of the island nation.
This is perhaps one reason why President Rajapaksa chose him for the PM’s
post despite the disastrous performance of the UNP under his leadership in the
last elections. Agreeing to become PM after the ignominious exit of Mahinda
Rajapaksa as PM when the ship of state threatens to capsize requires a lot of
self-confidence. Wickremesinghe seems to have plenty of it, though the elected
representative of the UNP is absent in the parliament, perhaps for the first
time.
On the flip side, that is also his weakness. His political past is strewn
with the failure of many well-meaning efforts. The 2002 Norwegian initiated
peace process with the LTTE is one example. If successfully implemented, it
could have saved at least 1,00,000 lives which were lost in the Eelam War
4.
During the peace process, the
political and personality differences between Wickremesinghe and President
Chandrika Kumaratunga were taken advantage of by LTTE leader Prabhakaran,
leading to its collapse. Similar leadership weakness led to the failure of the
Yahapalana government, under Wickremesinghe’s joint stewardship with Sirisena.
These are just a few examples of Wickremesinghe’s failure to deliver upon his
promises.
However, it is to the PM’s credit
that since coming to power, in his public discourses he has repeatedly warned
the people of privations and shortages that would continue for some more
months. Even conservative estimates look at six months to one year lead time
for the economic process to firm in.
The PM’s cabinet that is supposed
to implement the national recovery plan is a mixed bag of good, bad and ugly.
In the one month, the PM has achieved some semblance of stability after seeing
the exit of Basil Rajapaksa, the finance minister. He is out of the cabinet,
but he still influences the SLPP and is capable of pulling the rug. Prof
GL Peiris, the foreign minister, had been active to cash in on the
international goodwill Sri Lanka enjoys. But there are elements in the cabinet
that bring no credit to any government.
Wickremesinghe is one of the few
Sri Lankan leaders acceptable to a wide cross-section of the international
community. That includes most of the Sri Lanka Tamil bodies abroad, with whom
he had struck a working equation during his earlier avatar as PM of the
Yahapalana government. President Rajapaksa must have realised that he needed
him in his team when the country desperately needs international goodwill and
support to rescue the beleaguered economy.
Within a month of Wickremesinghe
becoming PM, there has been a positive international response to Lanka’s
economic woes. Of course, Sri Lanka is not the only country facing the
after-effects of Covid. This, compounded by the Ukraine War has crippled the
economy and endangered the livelihood of the people everywhere.
Of course, India has extended a
lifeline to Sri Lanka, providing over $3.5 line of credit to import fuel,
medicine and essential food supplies. A separate credit line of $500 million
has been extended for the purchase of fuel. But help is also flowing from
unexpected sources in India. Tamil Nadu is donating 40,000 tons of rice, over
100 lifesaving drugs and 500 tons of milk powder. Tamil Nadu’s ruling DMK party
has donated Rs ten million and its MPs have pledged a month’s salary for CM MK
Stalin’s fund for assistance to Sri Lanka.
In a rare gesture, the
ambassadors of the US and China met in Colombo on May 13. They “had a friendly
discussion on broad topics of mutual interest”, according to a tweet from the
Chinese embassy. It added: “China and the United States could work together to
help Sri Lanka to overcome current difficulties.”
The meeting is significant
because the same day, US Secretary of State Antony J Blinken spoke to
Wickremesinghe and discussed Lanka’s current economic and political challenges.
According to the State Department spokesman, the Secretary affirmed the US’
commitment to the Sri Lankan people during this challenging time and the
importance of supporting reforms that address their concerns, including democratic
governance and human rights. The PM’s media unit said that the PM in his
conversation explained the current status of the discussions with the IMF and
looked to work closely with the US.
But foreign aid can only flow if
Sri Lanka pays attention to international concerns over its poor accountability
for violation of human rights, war crimes, absence of rule of law
and ethnic strife.
There are three threats that
could vitiate Sri Lanka’s return to stability. First is the leaderless protests
that have snowballed into a national movement, a sort of colour revolution. The
GotaGoGama (Gota Go Village) protestors are established firmly in the minds of
youth and the middle class, who are disillusioned with the political class as a
whole and the Rajapaksas in particular. Their main demand now is the
resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. They are watching from the wings
to see how the government goes about organising the essential supply of food
stuff, fuel and sustenance of the poor. The government cannot afford to ignore
them, lest nihilists take over the protests to spread disorder.
Second, is the demand to curb the
executive president’s powers to make him accountable to the parliament. This
has near unanimous support of the public and almost all political parties,
including sections of the ruling SLPP. The president also seems to have
realised this. This requires the abolition of the 20th Amendment
to the Constitution introduced by President Rajapaksa soon after he came to
power. There are two drafts of the 21st Amendment floating—one proposed by the
PM and the other from the SJB opposition. Its passage in parliament could be
problematic. Even after the amendment is passed, implementing it both in
letter and spirit with Gotabaya on top is going to be a problem. It will
require a sagacious leader to do it. People are still looking over the horizon
for such a leader.
The third problem is sustaining
public support for implementing the common economic recovery plan for at least
a year. There are a few drafts of such a plan evolved by civil society
organisations. One is the Common Minimum Programme for Economic Recovery drafted
by the National Movement for Social Justice. It examines eight underlying
aspects of the crisis: macroeconomic stability, revenue consolidation, primary
expenditure control, public sector and state-owned enterprises management,
social safety net, energy and utilities, trade and industry and specialised
legislation critical to recovery. Any economic recovery plan will be on a
similar model, with short, medium and long term goals to be achieved in a
time-bound manner.
Without going into the nitty gritty
of economic reforms or legislation, the moot point is the ability of the
government to sustain the plan for a year. It will not only require leadership
commitment and continuity, but holistic support of the political class to see
through the crisis. Good governance, rule of law and corruption free
administration can only sustain such an effort. If Sri Lanka can do it, under
any leader, it would be a great achievement.
For the present, PM
Wickremesinghe is saddled with the job. He cannot do the “Candy Man” act
(to quote the lyrics of Sammy Davis Jr’s 1985 classic) to “take a sunrise,
sprinkle it with dew nor cover it with chocolate and a miracle or two” or “take
a rainbow and wrap it in a sigh, soak it in the sun” to make “a groovy lemon
pie”.
Wickremesinghe has the unviable
task of maintaining stability of the country to keep it going, feed the hungry,
encourage investment, resuscitate tourism trade and agriculture and keep the
money flowing. As the country’s pointsman, it is going to be an ordeal by fire.
He will need more than good wishes; solid support of the people to see through
this arduous task is what he needs. And that means less political bickering and
more action.
Corruption Reigns
Absence of rule of law has
vitiated governance in Sri Lanka for a long time. The present government is no
exception. Recently, the Colombo High Court sentenced Sri Lanka’s newly
sworn-in minister for public security and tourism Prasanna Ranatunga to two
years rigorous imprisonment. He was found guilty of threatening businessman G
Mendis and demanding Rs 64 million to evict unauthorised occupants of a land
and to refill the land.
The High Court also imposed a
fine of Rs 25 million on Ranatunga and ordered him to pay Rs 1 million to
Mendis as compensation. If the minister fails to do so, three more months will
be added to the prison sentence, which, of course, has been suspended.
It is not surprising that
Ranatunga had a victorious smirk on his face when the media clicked him after
the trial. Thereafter, the man on suspended sentence for a criminal offence
entered the parliament and sat with cabinet ministers.
The writer is a
retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the
Chennai Centre for China Studies.
No comments:
Post a Comment