Col R Hariharan
Highlights
President Rajapaksa and UNHRC investigation: After refusing
to cooperate with the UNHRC investigation commission on Sri Lanka, President Rajapaksa took proactive measures to
reduce international pressure on the issue by enlarging the mandate of the
Presidential Commission on Disappearances. It would now include probing
civilian deaths in the No Fire Zone in 2009. He has also appointed three internationally
eminent prosecutors as advisors to the Commission.
Chinese President to visit Sri Lanka: President Xi Jinping
of China will be visiting Sri Lanka during this year. The visit indicates the
growing importance China attaches to building its strategic relationship with
Sri Lanka. Considering India’s interest in developing close relations with both
the countries, the triangular relationship between India, China and Sri Lanka
might undergo some change.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Sri Lanka policy: The
BJP’s allies in Tamil Nadu are increasingly perturbed by the apparent failure
of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi to pressurise President Rajapaksa to
resolve long standing Tamil grievances. Presumably the Sri Lanka policy is a
work in progress and greater clarity would probably emerge in the coming
months.
President Rajapaksa and UNHRC investigation
President Rajapaksa is taking a number of initiatives to handle
intense international pressure to establish a credible domestic process to
investigate alleged human rights abuses and war crimes required as per Lessons
Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) report. The UN Commissioner for Human Rights had
highlighted the lack of such a domestic process
during the UNHRC meetings on the subject.
As a part of these initiatives the President has broadened the
mandate of the Presidential Commission on Disappearances (PCD) inquiring into
the disappearances to include probe into
the deaths of civilians in the no fire zone during the Eelam War in 2009.
To increase the PCD’s credibility, the President has appointed
three internationally eminent war crimes prosecutors - Sir Desmond De Silva and
Sir Geoffrey Nice, Queens Counsels, and Professor David Crane – as advisors to
the PCD. The Government has clarified that the advisors would have no role in
the investigations.
Earlier this year, the three experts had presented a joint report
on torture and executions in Syria to the UNHRC and the UN Security Council on
Syrian detainees. Dr. Crane had also briefed the two UN bodies on the alleged
war crimes committed in Syria.
However, there are a number of unanswered questions in the
process. The PCD is mandated to complete its inquiry by next year. But it is a moot point whether it would be
able to do so as it has so far inquired into only 700 of the 19000 complaints it
has received from the public. Moreover, the Terrorist Investigation Division
(TID)this is conducting a parallel inquiry on the same issue further diluting
the credibility of the PCD.
Chinese President’s visit to
Sri Lanka
President Xi
Jinping has accepted an invitation from President Rajapaksa to visit Sri Lanka
sometime this year. He will be the first-ever Chinese head of state to visit
the island nation. The visit would help implement the Strategic Cooperative
Partnership (SCP) agreement signed between the two countries during President
Rajapaksa’s visit to China in May 2013.
The SCP covers a wide range issues including
bilateral trade, investment, financial assistance and strategic cooperation to
benefit the two countries. Despite both countries stressing the commercial
nature of these developments, it would enhance the Chinese presence and
strategic reach in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). With the Chinese navy
improving its fleet operational capabilities, we can expect its increased presence
in the IOR to protect its interests.
China gained a foothold in Sri Lanka when it
readily met Sri Lanka’s arms and equipment needs during the Eelam War when
India was unable to do so due to domestic political compulsions. Since then,
China-Sri Lanka relations have become multi-faceted. China has become the most
important investment and trading partner of Sri Lanka in close competition with
India. A Free Trade Agreement between the two countries is also being finalised this year.
China has been promoting the Maritime Silk
Route (MSR) in which Sri Lanka has a strategic role. Sri Lanka has positively
responded to the Chinese overtures to join the MSR as it would help Sri Lanka
achieve its long term goal to emerge as a maritime and finance hub in the
Indian Ocean region. Strategically, the MSR would strengthen the economic
viability of Chinese investments in infrastructure assets in South Asia like ports
in Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh and Gwadar in Pakistan.
These developments would eat into India’s
strategic influence in its neighbourhood. China has been keen to cultivate the
Narendra Modi-led BJP government in New Delhi to facilitate the entry of
Chinese investment and trade. And Colombo which has a close trade and strategic
relationship with New Delhi is hopeful of rebuilding its relations with the BJP
government which is not hobbled by coalition pressures unlike the earlier
Manmohan Singh government. So both China and Sri Lanka will have to factor
Indian sensitivity to these developments.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Sri Lanka policy
The BJP’s electoral
allies in Tamil Nadu who had been expecting Modi to adopt a tough stand against Sri Lanka policy
have been disappointed with increasing cooperation between India and Sri Lanka.
In the run up to the parliamentary
elections Modi had promised all the help to redress Tamil grievances in Sri
Lanka including justice for the victims of war.
They had been
expecting India to support the UN investigation commission probe on Sri Lanka’s
alleged human rights violations by the security forces during the Eelam War.
They were shocked when India's External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj was reported
to have assured her Sri Lankan counterpart Prof G. L. Peiris when he met her in
New Delhi that there was no change in India's stand against the UN investigation.
BJP’s Tamil Nadu allies had protested at India’s abstention when the UNHRC resolution
was voted in March 2014 that mandated the UN investigation. The foreign
minister’s statement left them politically stranded. On top of it, the BJP’s
has now offered the Lok Sabha deputy speaker’s post to the AIADMK which had
swept the parliamentary poll in Tamil Nadu leaving them no room for manoeuvre.
These developments would indicate the Modi government’s
Sri Lanka policy is a work in progress and greater clarity would probably
emerge in the coming months after the visit of the Chinese President in
September.
Written on July 31, 2014
Courtesy: South Asia Security
Trends, August 2014
URL: www.security-risks.com
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