Sri Lanka Perspectives- July 2014

Col R Hariharan

Highlights

President Rajapaksa and UNHRC investigation: After refusing to cooperate with the UNHRC investigation commission on Sri Lanka, President Rajapaksa took proactive measures to reduce international pressure on the issue by enlarging the mandate of the Presidential Commission on Disappearances. It would now include probing civilian deaths in the No Fire Zone in 2009. He has also appointed three internationally eminent prosecutors as advisors to the Commission.

Chinese President to visit Sri Lanka: President Xi Jinping of China will be visiting Sri Lanka during this year. The visit indicates the growing importance China attaches to building its strategic relationship with Sri Lanka. Considering India’s interest in developing close relations with both the countries, the triangular relationship between India, China and Sri Lanka might undergo some change.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Sri Lanka policy: The BJP’s allies in Tamil Nadu are increasingly perturbed by the apparent failure of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi to pressurise President Rajapaksa to resolve long standing Tamil grievances. Presumably the Sri Lanka policy is a work in progress and greater clarity would probably emerge in the coming months.

President Rajapaksa and UNHRC investigation

President Rajapaksa is taking a number of initiatives to handle intense international pressure to establish a credible domestic process to investigate alleged human rights abuses and war crimes required as per Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) report.  The UN Commissioner for Human Rights had highlighted the lack of such a domestic process  during the UNHRC meetings on the subject.

As a part of these initiatives the President has broadened the mandate of the Presidential Commission on Disappearances (PCD) inquiring into the disappearances to include probe  into the deaths of civilians in the no fire zone during the Eelam War in 2009.

To increase the PCD’s credibility, the President has appointed three internationally eminent war crimes prosecutors - Sir Desmond De Silva and Sir Geoffrey Nice, Queens Counsels, and Professor David Crane – as advisors to the PCD. The Government has clarified that the advisors would have no role in the investigations.

Earlier this year, the three experts had presented a joint report on torture and executions in Syria to the UNHRC and the UN Security Council on Syrian detainees. Dr. Crane had also briefed the two UN bodies on the alleged war crimes committed in Syria.

However, there are a number of unanswered questions in the process. The PCD is mandated to complete its inquiry by next year.  But it is a moot point whether it would be able to do so as it has so far inquired into only 700 of the 19000 complaints it has received from the public. Moreover, the Terrorist Investigation Division (TID)this is conducting a parallel inquiry on the same issue further diluting the credibility of the PCD.

Chinese President’s visit to Sri Lanka

President Xi Jinping has accepted an invitation from President Rajapaksa to visit Sri Lanka sometime this year. He will be the first-ever Chinese head of state to visit the island nation. The visit would help implement the Strategic Cooperative Partnership (SCP) agreement signed between the two countries during President Rajapaksa’s visit to China in May 2013.

The SCP covers a wide range issues including bilateral trade, investment, financial assistance and strategic cooperation to benefit the two countries. Despite both countries stressing the commercial nature of these developments, it would enhance the Chinese presence and strategic reach in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). With the Chinese navy improving its fleet operational capabilities, we can expect its increased presence in the IOR to protect its interests.

China gained a foothold in Sri Lanka when it readily met Sri Lanka’s arms and equipment needs during the Eelam War when India was unable to do so due to domestic political compulsions. Since then, China-Sri Lanka relations have become multi-faceted. China has become the most important investment and trading partner of Sri Lanka in close competition with India. A Free Trade Agreement between the two countries is also being finalised this year.

China has been promoting the Maritime Silk Route (MSR) in which Sri Lanka has a strategic role. Sri Lanka has positively responded to the Chinese overtures to join the MSR as it would help Sri Lanka achieve its long term goal to emerge as a maritime and finance hub in the Indian Ocean region. Strategically, the MSR would strengthen the economic viability of Chinese investments in infrastructure assets in South Asia like ports in Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh and Gwadar in Pakistan.

These developments would eat into India’s strategic influence in its neighbourhood. China has been keen to cultivate the Narendra Modi-led BJP government in New Delhi to facilitate the entry of Chinese investment and trade. And Colombo which has a close trade and strategic relationship with New Delhi is hopeful of rebuilding its relations with the BJP government which is not hobbled by coalition pressures unlike the earlier Manmohan Singh government. So both China and Sri Lanka will have to factor Indian sensitivity to these developments.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Sri Lanka policy

The BJP’s electoral allies in Tamil Nadu who had been expecting Modi to adopt a tough stand against Sri Lanka policy have been disappointed with increasing cooperation between India and Sri Lanka.  In the run up to the parliamentary elections Modi had promised all the help to redress Tamil grievances in Sri Lanka including justice for the victims of war.

They had been expecting India to support the UN investigation commission probe on Sri Lanka’s alleged human rights violations by the security forces during the Eelam War. They were shocked when India's External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj was reported to have assured her Sri Lankan counterpart Prof G. L. Peiris when he met her in New Delhi that there was no change in India's stand against the UN investigation. BJP’s Tamil Nadu allies had protested at India’s abstention when the UNHRC resolution was voted in March 2014 that mandated the UN investigation. The foreign minister’s statement left them politically stranded. On top of it, the BJP’s has now offered the Lok Sabha deputy speaker’s post to the AIADMK which had swept the parliamentary poll in Tamil Nadu leaving them no room for manoeuvre.  

These developments would indicate the Modi government’s Sri Lanka policy is a work in progress and greater clarity would probably emerge in the coming months after the visit of the Chinese President in September.

Written on July 31, 2014

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, August 2014  

URL: www.security-risks.com