India must keep an eye on Sirisena's China visit

We can expect China to try and free Sri Lanka from Indian navy's monopoly in training the island nation's naval forces.

POLITICS  |  4-minute read |   26-03-2015  http://www.dailyo.in/user/960/colhari2

COLONEL R HARIHARAN @colhari2

China under President Xi Jinping is promoting the revival of the Silk Route as well as the 21st Century Maritime Silk Route in a big way as a part of its strategic westward reach. It involves reaching out to South Asian countries as well as the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India by its size, soft power and economic clout dominates both the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean neighbourhood.

If we go by his performance so far, president Xi has emerged as a pragmatist who does not lose sight of his end goals as long as his "core interests" are not threatened. China's media comments after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's three-nation visit in the IOR indicate a better appreciation in Beijing of India's role in IOR. Perhaps president Xi having factored Modi's assertive leadership style understood that wishing away India in this region would not be easy and it would not benefit China. So Beijing seems to be in a mood to cooperate and coordinate (if possible) its activities with India in this region.

This could be related to the international strategic environment as well as China's desire to take advantage of India's growth story which is being rewritten under Modi's leadership. Of course, China objections to prime minister Modi's February 2015 -visit to Arunachal Pradesh showed that despite all the cooing comments Beijing would not compromise upon its core interest.

India's experience in dealing with China holds an important lesson for Sri Lanka's leadership - there will be no mixing of metaphors when it comes to China's national interest. We can expect President Maithripala Sirisena to face the moment of truth when he talks with president Xi. So the Sri Lankan argument about cleaning up corruption in all projects including the Chinese ones just as China is doing, may not cut much ice except sympathetic nods.

China will be attaching importance to the Sri Lankan leader's visit because of the not so friendly impression he and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had created in the run up to the election. They decried Chinese-promoted mega projects as extravagant and suspected the opaque processes adopted to promote them as the source of corruption to benefit Rajapaksa clan. They had also accused Mahinda Rajapaksa of being partial to China at the cost of Sri Lanka's cordial relations with India. Chinese normally do not forget such comments easily.

Chinese leaders would mince no words about their unhappiness at such remarks in one-to-one talks. (Probably they would have done this when foreign minister Samaraweera visited China earlier (preparatory to Sirisena's visit).

Sri Lanka is perhaps the most important among the Indian Ocean islands to promote China's present strategic objectives. This is further increased due to the geo-strategic advantage India already enjoys in Sri Lanka. So China's first priority would be to consolidate its existing goodwill and protect the economic assets it had created during the Rajapaksa days. So we can expect China to make serious efforts to show Sri Lanka the tangible economic advantages in resuming the stalled projects. Some of them like the rural water supply project are really value-added ones.

Among the projects Colombo port reclamation is most prestigious and strategically important for China both from maritime security and commercial points of view. Already Sri Lanka appears to have tacitly agreed 

Even before the visit, China had been relentlessly pursuing action through local media (as well as using some political connections by an NGO's statement in the court) to clear its association with any criminal or corrupt activity. China is conscious of its emergence as a global power and reacts strongly when small countries make accusations against it

However, to save faces on both sides we can expect Chinese to provide access to books to show their hands are clean. They would make some concessions on financial terms by some deferred repayment and probably loosen some clause relating to Chinese control of "sovereign" rights parts ceded to them as a part of the project. We can also expect easier terms for fresh loans.

Of course, we can expect China to beef up the existing strategic security partnership pact between the two countries. Sri Lanka has strong appetite for improving its naval platforms and aircraft for surveillance and protection of its near ocean waters. To meet this need the existing joint committee on coastal security could be activated with offer of coastal naval craft and speedy delivery of those in pipeline. We can also expect China to try and free Sri Lanka from Indian navy's monopoly in training the island nation's naval forces. But this is more easily said than done.

Lastly, China seems to be interested in promoting China-Sri Lanka-India trilateral cooperation as a win-win strategy for "peace and prosperity" of the three countries. Though foreign minister Wang Yi had spoken about it, it does not appear to be within the realms of probability in near term. While we can expect to hear more about this after Modi's visit to Beijing, president Xi might bring up the idea in his talks with president Sirisena as he would probably welcome such an initiative.

#Xi Jinping, #Narendra Modi, #Maithripala Sirisena, #India-Sri Lanka relations

Comments on Sri Lanka President Sirisena’s maiden visit to China

Col R Hariharan

[This article is an elaboration of answer given to an international news agency’s question on President Sirisena's visit to China on March 25, 2015.]

Question

President Maithripala Sirisena’s Chinese visit  is starting later today (March 25, 2015).  This visit comes after his government’s willingness to strengthen ties with neighbour India with leaders of the both countries visiting each other’s nation within a month and the suspension of Chinese aided Colombo port city reclamation project.

How do you see this visit and do you think China would be ready for any renegotiations on its Port city projects or any debt finance?

The present government says Chinese government is clean, but its companies are involved in corrupt deals under the former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The government says it wants to eliminate the corruption similar to what Chinese leaders are doing in their country. Appreciate your comment.

Answer

There are two parts to this question. The one relating to Sri Lanka-India relations will be viewed by China as a multilateral international issue, while the other relating to suspension of Chinese aided projects will be treated by both countries as a bilateral one.

China under President Xi Jinping is promoting the revival of the Silk Route as well as the 21^st Century Maritime Road in a big way as a part of its strategic westward reach. It involves reaching out to South Asian countries as well as the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India by its size, soft power and economic clout dominates both the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean 

neighbourhood.

If we go by his performance so far, President Xi has emerged as a pragmatist who does not lose sight of his end goals as long as his “core interests” are not threatened. China’s media comments after Prime Minister Modi’s three-nation visit in the IOR indicate a better appreciation in Beijing of India’s role in IOR. Perhaps President Xi having factored Modi’s assertive leadership style understood that wishing away India in this region would not be easy and it would not benefit China. So Beijing seems to be in a mood to cooperate and coordinate (if possible) its activities with India in this region.

This could be related to the international strategic environment as well as China’s desire to take advantage of India’s growth story which is being rewritten under Modi’s leadership. Of course, China objections to Prime Minister Modi’s February 2015 -visit to Arunachal Pradesh showed that despite all the cooing comments Beijing would not compromise upon its core interest.

India’s experience in dealing with China holds an important lesson for Sri Lanka leadership – there will be no mixing of metaphors when it comes to China’s national interest. We can expect President Sirisena to face the moment of truth when he talks with President Xi. So the Sri Lankan argument about cleaning up corruption in all projects including the Chinese ones just as China is doing may not cut much ice except sympathetic nods.

China will be attaching importance to the Sri Lankan leader's visit because of the not so friendly impression he and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had created in the run up to the election. They decried Chinese-promoted mega projects as extravagant and suspected the opaque processes adopted to promote them as the source of corruption to benefit Rajapaksa clan. They had also accused Mahinda Rajapaksa of being partial to China at the cost of Sri Lanka’s cordial relations with India. Chinese normally do not forget such comments easily.

Even before the visit China had been relentlessly pursuing action through local media (as well as using some political connections if w by an NGO’s statement in the court) to clear its association with any criminal or corrupt activity. China is conscious of its emergence as a global power and reacts strongly when small countries make accusations against China. Chinese leaders would mince no words about their unhappiness at such remarks in one-t0-one talks. (Probably they would have done this when Foreign Minister Samaraweera visited China earlier (preparatory to Sirisena’s visit).  

Sri Lanka is perhaps the most important among the Indian Ocean islands to promote China’s present strategic objectives. This is further increased due to the geo-strategic advantage India already enjoys in Sri Lanka. So China’s first priority would be to consolidate its existing goodwill and protect the economic assets it had created during the Rajapaksa days.  So we can expect China to make serious efforts to show Sri Lanka the tangible economic advantages Sri Lanka in kick starting the stalled projects are resumed. Some of them like the rural water supply project are really value-added ones.

Among the projects Colombo port reclamation is most prestigious and strategically important for China both from maritime security and commercial points of view. Already Sri Lanka appears to have tacitly agreed not to cancel the project as indicated by Sri Lanka Prime Minister. Sri Lanka government has also agreed for the construction of breakwater that would help the Project. But Chinese are tough negotiators with immense patience; so Sri Lanka would probably end up giving in more than gaining much.

However, to save faces on both sides we can expect Chinese to provide access to books to show their hands are clean. They would make some concessions on financial terms by some deferred repayment and probably loosen some clause relating to Chinese control of  “sovereign” rights parts ceded to them as a part of the project. We can also expect easier terms for fresh loans.

Of course, we can expect China to beef up the existing strategic security partnership pact between the two countries. Sri Lanka has strong appetite for improving its naval platforms and aircraft for surveillance and protection of its near ocean waters. To meet this need the existing joint committee on coastal security could be activated with offer of coastal naval craft and speedy delivery of those in pipeline. We can also expect China to try and free Sri Lanka from Indian navy’s monopoly in training the island nation’s naval forces. But this is more easily said than done.

Lastly, China seems to be interested in promoting China-Sri Lanka-India trilateral cooperation as a win-win strategy for “peace and prosperity” of the three countries. Though Foreign Minister Wang Yi had spoken about it, it does not appear to within the realms of probability in near term. While we can expect to hear more about this after Modi's visit to Beijing, President Xi might bring up the idea in his talks with President Sirise as he would probably welcome such an initiative.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia, served as head of intelligence, Indian Peace Keeping Force (1987-90). He is associated with South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies.E-mail:haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info ] 

Will Sri Lanka see the return of Rajapaksa?

Buzz is that the former president will try to become prime minier by contesting the upcoming general elections. 

Col R Hariharan

Is former Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who suffered a surprise defeat in the January 2015 presidential election, set to reincarnate as a prime minister? It would appear so, if we go by the moves of the national unity government as well as pro-Rajapaksa elements within the polity. Of course, Rajapaksa, the Grandmaster of political intrigues,  kept everyone guessing despite continued speculation in media and political circles. 

Even in his interview to The Hindu ten days back he would not directly talk about getting back into the political scene. Instead he has tried to play the martyr card by complaining about the corruption investigation being carried out against some of his family members and associates.

But Rajapaksa kept the speculation alive by saying “I would have just supported this government. But they want to probe, put us in jail, [and] take our passports without any evidence. How can I retire like this? I never said I would retire. At the moment I am taking a rest.” So it would be reasonable to conclude he is likely to contest the general election in April 2015.

Of course, with skeletons of corruption tumbling every day from the Rajapaksa and company’s cupboard, the former president has to make up his mind fast. There is no doubt corruption and misuse of power by Rajapaksa family and their cronies have damaged the Rajapaksa brand justifying the government investigations. But unless they are proved in a court of law 4.8 million voters who supported Rajapaksa will continue to consider him a political martyr than a self-centered autocrat.

This is the advantage Rajapaksa enjoys because even investigations into corruption cases – specially the mega projects – cannot be completed within the self-imposed 100-day deadline of the Sirisena government for holding parliamentary elections. And there is no way the investigations could be rushed through as some of the major cases involve the Chinese who have a number of options to delay the process.

Rajapaksa appears to be taking cautious steps to gauge the public mood and reinforce his popular support with Sinhala masses before he jumps back into the political fray.Two rallies organized by his admirers and smaller parties like the National Freedom Front (NFF) were well attended. There are probably more on the anvil. The central theme of the rallies is to persuade Rajapaksa to contest the general election to regain power. 

The small parties have a personal stake in Rajapaksa regaining power. If he does not do so, parties like NFF, Labour Party, Mahajana Eksath Peramuna, which had benefitted from Rajapaksa’s political benevolence may well be left out in political wilderness. 

It is significant that neither Rajapaksa nor the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) which he had nurtured for many years participated in the rallies. Apparently this was done perhaps intentionally to add an element of spontaneity to the whole exercise. The ebullient and acerbic NFF leader Wimal Weeravamsa is probably the point man in this effort. Of course, he has a personal axe to grind as his wife is facing serious charges of getting a diplomatic passport on false pretexts. Apart from this in the past Rajapaksa had fired potshots from his shoulder at some of the inconvenient targets.

Going by this, the pro-Rajapaksa  camp’s strategy to bring him back to power would probably cash in on latent fears of Sinhala masses and even sections of political parties. Three related themes likely to be included are: Sri Lanka heading for instability without Rajapaksa at the helm, loss of Chinese aid for major projects which could improve employment and development opportunities and revival of Tamil Tigers (with the possible help of India to ginger up Big Brother syndrome) encouraged by Sirisena government. The participation of Left parties in this effort would come in handy to underplay the anti-minority credentials of the campaign.

Even as the government contemplated introducing the all important 19^th amendment (19A) to constitution, the main opposition party in parliament the SLFP has joined the government. While this could be Sirisena’s tactical move to gain the SLFP support to push through the 19A in parliament. Though Sirisena leads the SLFP now, the move suits pro-Rajapaksa Trojans within the Party as it can help dilute the government efforts to bring Rajapaksa and his cronies to book on corruption charges.

Evidently unnerved by the possibility of the return of Rajapaksa, the national unity government is rushing the 19A through parliament. Far from turning the executive presidency to a ceremonial one as promised in the campaign against Rajapaksa, the amendment seeks only to curb certain powers of the executive president by reestablishing the Elections Commission, the independent Police Commission, the Public Services Commission and the Constitutional Council.Presumably the two-term curb on the president would also be back.

Though the cabinet had approved the abolition of the executive presidency, a compromise seems to have to be struck to shelve it for the time being to ward off objections from SLFP which is divided on the issue. The decision also recognizes the objections of right wing Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), a member of the national unity alliance and strong supporter of executive presidency. However, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe has told ‘abolitionists’ notably his foreign minister Mangala Samaraweera that there should be a more comprehensive constitutional amendment under the new parliament which will be convened after the next parliamentary election according to the Daily News, Colombo. 

So Rajapaksa seems to have scored a small but significant victory even while“taking rest” well before he joins the battle.

#China, #India, #LTTE, #Maithripala Sirisena

Courtesy: India Today portal Daily O, March 3, 2015

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/mahinda-rajapaksa-maithripala-sirisena-sri-lanka-ltte-india-china/story/1/2734.html

How to handle Coalgate scam?

"The Congress leadership left it to the opposition to handle it, instead of taking charge. They should have just let 'due process' take place."

COL R HARIHARAN   @colhari2 | POLITICS  |  4-minute read |   13-03-2015

These days I am having a problem when I brush my teeth twice a day. The toothpaste - the same brand I had been loyally using for the last 50 years - suddenly tastes bitter. After some sleuthing around, I discovered the problem was not with the paste but its brand name sounding similar to the Coalgate – the mother of all scams. Luckily for me, unlike the Good Old Party, the toothpaste does not stink.

An old friend of mine - a legal veteran with many courtroom corruption battles to his credit - rued the way the Congress leadership handled the Coalgate scam. “They left it to the opposition to handle it, instead of taking charge. The political leadership should have just let 'due process' take place. But foolishly they allowed the bureaucrats to find a solution. Judiciary is the answer. From an inquiry to FIR to finalisation of the chargesheet to preparing the case of this size would have taken 12 years. Add a few rounds of appeals by the huge number of suspects from start to finish; it be another decade or a little less. And in the meantime, who knows about the turning tide of politics," he was seriously strategising.

I was aghast at the sheer audacity of his suggestion. He must have seen disbelief written on my face. "Don’t look at me like that. Our legal system is designed for this. After all it is to help most politicians who are lawyers. I am sure that is why we do not want to change the system because it supports all stakeholders except the fall guys," he told me with an all-knowing smirk

"Instead, the Congress leadership allowed bureaucrats to perform the 'vanishing file trick'. This is a clumsy class 4 method in the technology era. They tried to change the leadership in investigating agencies; but nobody believes the agencies anymore. These were unnecessary. Do you remember the Telgi case? It had very big names linked to it. What happened to it? Does anyone remember those big names who have moved on to flourish further?

“It was wonderfully handled. The media had a daily feed of visuals of poor Telgi under narcoanalysis lying on the table like a beached whale. He was mouthing the names of a few well known politicians. Telgi and a few other guys were given long jail terms. But nothing happened to the political leaders.

“They successfully contested elections, mouthed homilies about moral character and prepared the next-gen to takeover. They saw the merits of using the existing system. They are not Telgis who was a counterfeiter to be jailed; but they have to serve the nation as Netas!” my lawyer friend grinned like a Cheshire cat.

Though I did not like his ear to ear grin, I could not but agree with him. I remember the case study on Telgi scam I wrote for an IIM class. The case study compared it with China’s infamous formalin milk adulteration scandal. Abdul Karim Telgi and few others were convicted for long terms of imprisonment for counterfeiting stamp papers worth an estimated Rs 600 billion! Nothing happened to the political guys.

The case took seven years to be brought to conclusion; probably appeals are still in progress. The last I heard was Telgi seeking a court order to prevent the release of Mudrank, a movie on the Telgi case. After that I read about income tax guys running around in circles to collect a fine of Rs one crore from Telgi.

Of course, the Chinese are smarter both in corruption and in dealing it. The infant milk adulteration was discovered in September 2008 affecting more than 6,200 children. Within a week, 54,000 kids developed the symptoms and four died. The long arm of law swiftly caught the culprits. A number of criminal prosecutions were launched; two people were executed and another given a suspended death sentence. Two others were given 11 years imprisonment. Seven officials were fired. All within two years!

Can that be done here? Of course not; we are a democracy; there is a "due process of law". Forget about the victims but we definitely have human rights for criminals. Above all, we have politicians who have to run expensive election campaigns to serve the people.

But I find the Chinese are a few steps ahead. The adulterers found new food stuff to pollute; in two years it was eggs. But their politicians were even smarter. They are now carrying out large scale arrest of many leaders and top officials including PLA generals on charges of corruption. President Xi calls it living his "Chinese Dream" not "Swach Chini".

#Congress, #Coal Scam

Courtesy: India Today portal DailyO  

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/coalgate-scam-congress-abdul-karim-telgi/story/1/2536.html

What Boko Haram's allegiance to the ISIS reveals

Jihadi militants in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Yemen in the Arab world have already pledged their allegiance to the ISIS "caliph" Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Col R HARIHARAN  POLITICS | 5-minute read |   09-03-2015

The Nigerian jihadi militant group Boko Haram (literally "Western education is forbidden") has given a big boost  to the credibility of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Africa by pledging allegiance to the self-styled "caliphate". The Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau in an unverified audio message posted on Twitter announced: "We announce our allegiance to the caliph... and will hear and obey in times of prosperity." He called upon, "Muslims everywhere to pledge allegiance to the caliph."

Jihadi militants in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Yemen in the Arab world have already pledged their allegiance to the ISIS "caliph" Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi. In real terms it may not add much to ISIS capabilities. But as Boko Haram is the most powerful and active non-Arab jihadi militant group in Africa, its affiliation will certainly add to the ISIS' prestige in the continent (including Arab countries) which has 53 per cent of world's Muslim population. It will help ISIS to take advantage of sections of the younger generation in Africa who have come under the spell of ISIS' well orchestrated propaganda blitz on the social media campaign across the globe. But it would not be an easy exercise for ISIS due to Africa's poor communication, low internet density, competing tribal and ethnic loyalties cutting across national boundaries and the ever increasing Christian evangelisation campaigns.

Boko Haram was founded by Mohammed Yusuf as a conservative Islamic sect in 2002 in Maiduguri in the Bomo province in the North-eastern Nigeria bordering Chad and Cameroon. It seeks to create an Islamic state guided by Sharia laws. Alarmed at its growing militant activities, Nigerian army carried out operations in July 2009 killing 700 people most of them believed to be Boko Haram followers. Boko Haram founder Yusuf was taken prisoner, however, he was killed under controversial circumstances "while trying to escape from military custody." Some of the Boko Haram survivors fled to Algeria, Somalia and probably Afghanistan they came back better trained, armed and motivated to serve under the second in command Shekau who took over as leader after Yusuf death. His killing seems to have hardened the resolve of both Shekau and his followers to build a vicious and powerful outfit today. Boko Haram now matches the ISIS in the brutality and barbarism of its actions against prisoners and hapless civilian population particularly women and children.

ISIS already seems to have impressed Boko Haram with its sophisticated publicity methods to reach and motivate the youth who have been exposed only to madarasa education in villages. Boko Haram already has a nebulous control over large chunks of territory in the North-eastern states of Yobe, Bomo and Adamawa in Nigeria. Its writ runs over large areas of Kanuri-ethnicity in these states.

Since 2011, some of Boko Haram's daring terrorist strikes have caught international media attention. These include suicide bomb attacks on police offices and the UN office in Nigeria's capital Abuja, in which 11 UN staff members and 12 others were killed. Last April, Boko Haram's kidnapping of 275 school girls from Chibok in Borno state attracted worldwide condemnation particularly after its leader Shekau announced his intention to sell them into slavery.

Boko Haram has also been active in neighbouring countries of Niger, Chad and Cameroon. It demonstrated its capability in Cameroon by kidnapping the wife of the vice president of Cameroon in July 2014. Earlier in May, Boko Haram had kidnapped ten Chinese workers employed in a construction company in a Northern Cameroon town near the Nigerian border. Cameroon forces' operations failed to free the lady and the Chinese workers held hostage who were released by Boko Haram in October 2014. However, it was not clear whether any ransom was paid for their release. Boko Haram has continued to operate with impunity in Cameroon, and Chad in 2015 also.

Boko Haram's success has exposed the inability of Nigerian President Good Luck Jonathan to either politically negotiate a solution with the jihadists or effectively use the military to put down the insurgency. It also showed Nigerian forces' lack of competency in carrying out counter insurgency operations. 

There were also reports of Boko Haram infiltrating Nigerian forces. Moreover, though Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon have an agreement to carry out joint and coordinated operations against Boko Haram, in reality this does not seem to have produced any worthwhile results. Nothing illustrates this better than the January 3, 2015 attack of Boko Haram on a military base in Baga used by the multinational forces. Boko Haram seized the base and set fire to the town and massacred thousands of people, though the Nigerian government said the reports were highly exaggerated.

President Jonathan has already postponed the national election by six weeks 

until March 28, 2015 due to the Boko Haram threat. He hopes to be come out triumphant in the elections for yet another term in office. But it may not be easy as the jihadi insurgency has rendered a few lakhs of people homeless and nearly 200,000 people are estimated to have fled to Cameroon due to the war which does not seem to be abating.  

Boko Haram's allegiance to the ISIS also indicates the waning influence of the al Qaeda. In 2009, al Qaeda linked groups like Al Shabab in Somalia and the al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in neighbouring Niger and Algeria had helped Boko Haram recover after it lost its founding leader Yusuf and hundreds of cadres. These jihadi groups  armed and trained Boko Haram cadres who sought refuge in their countries. AQIM is also believed to have channelised funds to Boko Haram from donors in Saudi Arabia and UK.  

Will all this make a difference to the ISIS fortunes in India? Probably not; in any case ISIS has enough assets in Pakistan after hundreds of cadres quit Pakistani Taliban (TTP) to join the newly opened branch of ISIS in Pakistan in October 2014 after the military operations in North Waziristan. However, now we can expect more gullible youth to be impressed with the ISIS sway over three continents.

#Terrorism, #Africa, #Boko Haram, #ISIS

Courtesy: India Today portal DailyO

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/boko-haram-isis-africa-abubakar-shekau-nigeria/story/1/2463.html