Buzz is that the former
president will try to become prime minier by contesting the upcoming general
elections.
Col R
Hariharan
Is
former Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who suffered a surprise defeat in
the January 2015 presidential election, set to reincarnate as a prime minister? It would appear so, if we go by the moves of the national unity
government as well as pro-Rajapaksa elements within the polity. Of course,
Rajapaksa, the Grandmaster of political intrigues, kept everyone guessing despite continued
speculation in media and political circles.
Even in
his interview to The Hindu ten days back he would not directly talk about
getting back into the political scene. Instead he has tried to play the martyr
card by complaining about the corruption investigation being carried out
against some of his family members and associates.
But
Rajapaksa kept the speculation alive by saying “I would have just supported
this government. But they want to probe, put us in jail, [and] take our
passports without any evidence. How can I retire like this? I never said I
would retire. At the moment I am taking a rest.” So it would be reasonable to
conclude he is likely to contest the general election in April 2015.
Of
course, with skeletons of corruption tumbling every day from the Rajapaksa and
company’s cupboard, the former president has to make up his mind fast. There is
no doubt corruption and misuse of power by Rajapaksa family and their cronies
have damaged the Rajapaksa brand justifying the government investigations. But
unless they are proved in a court of law 4.8 million voters who supported
Rajapaksa will continue to consider him a political martyr than a self-centered
autocrat.
This is
the advantage Rajapaksa enjoys because even investigations into corruption
cases – specially the mega projects – cannot be completed within the
self-imposed 100-day deadline of the Sirisena government for holding
parliamentary elections. And there is no way the investigations could be rushed
through as some of the major cases involve the Chinese who have a number of
options to delay the process.
Rajapaksa
appears to be taking cautious steps to gauge the public mood and reinforce his
popular support with Sinhala masses before he jumps back into the political
fray.Two rallies organized by his admirers and smaller parties like the
National Freedom Front (NFF) were well attended. There are probably more on the
anvil. The central theme of the rallies is to persuade Rajapaksa to contest the
general election to regain power.
The
small parties have a personal stake in Rajapaksa regaining power. If he does
not do so, parties like NFF, Labour Party, Mahajana Eksath Peramuna, which had
benefitted from Rajapaksa’s political benevolence may well be left out in
political wilderness.
It is
significant that neither Rajapaksa nor the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) which
he had nurtured for many years participated in the rallies. Apparently this was
done perhaps intentionally to add an element of spontaneity to the whole
exercise. The ebullient and acerbic NFF leader Wimal Weeravamsa is probably the
point man in this effort. Of course, he has a personal axe to grind as his wife
is facing serious charges of getting a diplomatic passport on false pretexts.
Apart from this in the past Rajapaksa had fired potshots from his shoulder at
some of the inconvenient targets.
Going by
this, the pro-Rajapaksa camp’s
strategy to bring him back to power would probably cash in on latent fears of
Sinhala masses and even sections of political parties. Three related themes
likely to be included are: Sri Lanka heading for instability without Rajapaksa
at the helm, loss of Chinese aid for major projects which could improve
employment and development opportunities and revival of Tamil Tigers (with the
possible help of India to ginger up Big Brother syndrome) encouraged by
Sirisena government. The participation of Left parties in this effort would
come in handy to underplay the anti-minority credentials of the campaign.
Even as
the government contemplated introducing the all important 19th amendment
(19A) to constitution, the main opposition party in parliament the SLFP has
joined the government. While this could be Sirisena’s tactical move to gain the
SLFP support to push through the 19A in parliament. Though Sirisena leads the
SLFP now, the move suits pro-Rajapaksa Trojans within the Party as it can help
dilute the government efforts to bring Rajapaksa and his cronies to book on
corruption charges.
Evidently
unnerved by the possibility of the return of Rajapaksa, the national unity government is
rushing the 19A through parliament. Far from turning the executive
presidency to a ceremonial one as promised in the campaign against
Rajapaksa, the amendment seeks only to curb certain powers of the executive
president by reestablishing the Elections
Commission, the independent Police Commission, the Public Services Commission
and the Constitutional Council.Presumably the two-term curb on the president would also be back.
Though
the cabinet had approved the abolition of the executive presidency, a
compromise seems to have to be struck to shelve it for the time being to ward
off objections from SLFP which is divided on the issue. The decision also
recognizes the objections of right wing Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), a member of
the national unity alliance and strong supporter of executive presidency.
However, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe has told ‘abolitionists’ notably his
foreign minister Mangala Samaraweera that there
should be a more comprehensive constitutional amendment under the new
parliament which will be convened after the next parliamentary election
according to the Daily News, Colombo.
So Rajapaksa seems to have scored a
small but significant victory even while“taking rest” well before he joins the
battle.
Courtesy:
India Today portal Daily O, March 3, 2015
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