Thursday, 5 March 2015

Sri Lanka perspectives - February 2015



Col R Hariharan

President Sirisena’s visit to India

In a welcome gesture, newly elected President Sirisena made New Delhi his first foreign destination after assuming office. Even during the run up to the election both he and the opposition United National Party (UNP) leader Ranil Wickremesinghe had spoken of their intention to correct Rajapakse’s China-tilt to correct the imbalance in the relations with India.

The President’s four-day visit from February 15, 2015 went off smoothly; even the usual noisy protests in Tamil Nadu that were against Rajapakse’s visit were missing. After his cordial talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi the two countries signed four pacts including an agreement on civil nuclear cooperation for peaceful use were signed.

Though there was a lot of media hype about the nuclear agreement, as Sri Lanka has no immediate plans on using nuclear energy only in  scientific and medical fields, its importance is limited to opening up a green field area for bilateral cooperation. Apart from an agreement on Cultural Cooperation for 2015-18 two other memoranda of understanding were also signed. One related to Sri Lanka participation in the Nalanda University project while the other was on the Work Plan 3024-15 for agricultural cooperation.

Overall, there were no new affirmations or path breaking initiatives on both sides during the Sri Lanka President’s visit. Even the hardy perennial issues of implementation of the 13th amendment in full to trigger the reconciliation process with Tamils and the post-war rehabilitation did not find place in communiqués and media releases. Of course both mentioned the Tamil Nadu fishermen’s issue with the hope it would be amicably resolved.

So the purpose of President Sirisena’s visit appears to be to get to know the new leadership under Modi and rebuild the bruised relation between the two countries. He probably reassured India that he was serious about correcting the tilt towards China. Sirisena needs India’s support and influence in UN forums to help Sri Lanka get out of the standoff with the UNHRC as well as to strengthen its negotiating position with China on revising the terms of China- aided projects and in investigating corruption allegations in them. India can also give a boost to Sri Lanka economy which is facing the looming burden of debt servicing. This would improve his credibility. India can also be useful in helping to swing TNA support in favour of the ruling national unity front in the forthcoming general elections.  

However, when Modi makes his maiden visit to Colombo in March 2015 we can expect some specific plans on attending to India’s concerns on Tamil issues, balanced relations between China and India and greater bilateral cooperation and Indian assistance for Sri Lanka.

Prospects for national unity government

The present government appears to be keen to form a national unity government after the parliamentary election due on April 23, 2015. This would enable it to take the restructuring process initiated under the 100-day action plan to its logical conclusion of installing an empowered prime minister with a president more accountable to parliament.

However, it will require the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) opposition accepting the idea. Though President Sirisena himself leads the SLFP this may not be easy. The strong pro-Rajapaksa faction within Party and the smaller parties of its UPFA coalition loyal to Rajapaksa are averse to the idea of a national unity government. Rajapaksa-loyalists spearheaded by former minister and leader of the National Freedom Front (NFF) Wimal Weeravansa have gained some credibility after the UPFA members (without SLFP participation) recently organised a huge rally in Nugegoda in support of Rajapaksa’s return to active politics. In fact, three more such rallies are likely to be held in Kandy, Kurunegala and Anuradhapura. Western Province’s UPFA provincial councillors and government members have launched a campaign demanding Rajapaksa as the prime ministerial candidate. Though Rajapaksa had been maintaining a studied silence on his return to politics, if the support movement gathers momentum he could change his mind.

Army leadership changes

Lt General A. W. J. Crishanthe De Silva belonging to the Corps of Sri Lanka Engineers has been appointed Commander of the Army in the place of  Lt General Ravi Ratnayake who retired on February 22, 2015.

Deputy Urban Development Minister Dinesh Gankanda has announced that nearly 18,000 soldiers deployed to work on development projects under the Ministry of Defence and Urban Development will be reverted to their regiments. He said this was in keeping with the pledge made in the election manifesto of President Sirisena to stop the employment of military personnel in occupations that undermine their dignity.

Miscellaneous

In a shocking revelation in parliament Minister of External Affairs Mangala Samaraweera disclosed that a Sri Lankan ambassador of the Rajapaksa regime had used the Sri Lankan mission in “a prominent country” to sell weapons. He also said that Sri Lankan diplomatic missions abroad had been functioning as business centres during the previous regime. He said he had called for a ministerial investigation from on the deals and tasks carried out by Sri Lankan missions abroad during the previous government.

In another such disclosure Deputy Foreign Minister Ajith Perera had alleged that some of those who had received diplomatic or official passports during the UPFA administration were believed to have exploited the facility to smuggle in narcotics through the Colombo international airport. Answering to a media query he claimed that they had used the VIP channel for that purpose for years. In this context, it is interesting to note the wife of NFF leader Weerawansa has been avoiding interrogation by the CID for using forged documents to obtain diplomatic passport. 
Written on February 28, 2015

(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com   Blog: http://col.hariharan.info)  

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, Vol 9 No 1 February 2015  www.security-risks.com

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