Col R Hariharan
[This article is an elaboration of
answer given to an international news agency’s question on President Sirisena's
visit to China on March 25, 2015.]
Question
President Maithripala Sirisena’s
Chinese visit is starting later today (March 25, 2015). This visit
comes after his government’s willingness to strengthen ties with neighbour
India with leaders of the both countries visiting each other’s nation within a
month and the suspension of Chinese aided Colombo port city reclamation
project.
How do you see this
visit and do you think China would be ready for any renegotiations on its Port
city projects or any debt finance?
The present government says Chinese
government is clean, but its companies are involved in corrupt deals under the
former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The government says it wants to eliminate
the corruption similar to what Chinese leaders are doing in their country.
Appreciate your comment.
Answer
There are two parts to this question.
The one relating to Sri Lanka-India relations will be viewed by China as a
multilateral international issue, while the other relating to suspension of
Chinese aided projects will be treated by both countries as a bilateral one.
China under
President Xi Jinping is promoting the revival of the Silk Route as well as the
21st Century Maritime Road in a big way as a part of its
strategic westward reach. It involves reaching out to South Asian countries as
well as the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India by its size, soft power and
economic clout dominates both the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean
neighbourhood.
If we go by his
performance so far, President Xi has emerged as a pragmatist who does not lose
sight of his end goals as long as his “core interests” are not threatened.
China’s media comments after Prime Minister Modi’s three-nation visit in the
IOR indicate a better appreciation in Beijing of India’s role in IOR. Perhaps
President Xi having factored Modi’s assertive leadership style understood that
wishing away India in this region would not be easy and it would not benefit
China. So Beijing seems to be in a mood to cooperate and coordinate (if
possible) its activities with India in this region.
This could be
related to the international strategic environment as well as China’s desire to
take advantage of India’s growth story which is being rewritten under Modi’s
leadership. Of course, China objections to Prime Minister Modi’s February 2015
-visit to Arunachal Pradesh showed that despite all the cooing comments Beijing
would not compromise upon its core interest.
India’s experience
in dealing with China holds an important lesson for Sri Lanka leadership –
there will be no mixing of metaphors when it comes to China’s national
interest. We can expect President Sirisena to face the moment of truth when he
talks with President Xi. So the Sri Lankan argument about cleaning up
corruption in all projects including the Chinese ones just as China is doing
may not cut much ice except sympathetic nods.
China will be
attaching importance to the Sri Lankan leader's visit because of the not so
friendly impression he and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had created in
the run up to the election. They decried Chinese-promoted mega projects as
extravagant and suspected the opaque processes adopted to promote them as the
source of corruption to benefit Rajapaksa clan. They had also accused Mahinda
Rajapaksa of being partial to China at the cost of Sri Lanka’s cordial
relations with India. Chinese normally do not forget such comments easily.
Even before the
visit China had been relentlessly pursuing action through local media (as well
as using some political connections if w by an NGO’s statement in the court) to
clear its association with any criminal or corrupt activity. China is conscious
of its emergence as a global power and reacts strongly when small countries
make accusations against China. Chinese leaders
would mince no words about their unhappiness at such remarks in one-t0-one
talks. (Probably they would have done this when Foreign Minister Samaraweera
visited China earlier (preparatory to Sirisena’s visit).
Sri Lanka is
perhaps the most important among the Indian Ocean islands to promote China’s
present strategic objectives. This is further increased due to the
geo-strategic advantage India already enjoys in Sri Lanka. So China’s first
priority would be to consolidate its existing goodwill and protect the economic
assets it had created during the Rajapaksa days. So we can expect China
to make serious efforts to show Sri Lanka the tangible economic advantages Sri
Lanka in kick starting the stalled projects are resumed. Some of them like the
rural water supply project are really value-added ones.
Among the projects
Colombo port reclamation is most prestigious and strategically important for
China both from maritime security and commercial points of view. Already Sri
Lanka appears to have tacitly agreed not to cancel the project as indicated by
Sri Lanka Prime Minister. Sri Lanka government has also agreed for the
construction of breakwater that would help the Project. But Chinese are tough
negotiators with immense patience; so Sri Lanka would probably end up giving in
more than gaining much.
However, to save
faces on both sides we can expect Chinese to provide access to books to show
their hands are clean. They would make some concessions on financial terms by
some deferred repayment and probably loosen some clause relating to Chinese
control of “sovereign” rights parts ceded to them as a part of the
project. We can also expect easier terms for fresh loans.
Of course, we can
expect China to beef up the existing strategic security partnership pact
between the two countries. Sri Lanka has strong appetite for improving its
naval platforms and aircraft for surveillance and protection of its near ocean
waters. To meet this need the existing joint committee on coastal security
could be activated with offer of coastal naval craft and speedy delivery of
those in pipeline. We can also expect China to try and free Sri Lanka from
Indian navy’s monopoly in training the island nation’s naval forces. But this
is more easily said than done.
Lastly, China seems to be
interested in promoting China-Sri Lanka-India trilateral cooperation as a
win-win strategy for “peace and prosperity” of the three countries. Though
Foreign Minister Wang Yi had spoken about it, it does not appear to within the
realms of probability in near term. While we can expect to hear more about this
after Modi's visit to Beijing, President Xi might bring up the idea in his
talks with President Sirise as he would probably welcome such an initiative.
[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI
specialist on South Asia, served as head of intelligence, Indian Peace Keeping
Force (1987-90). He is associated with South Asia Analysis Group and the
Chennai Centre for China Studies.E-mail:haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info ]
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