We can expect China to try and
free Sri Lanka from Indian navy's monopoly in training the island nation's
naval forces.
COLONEL R HARIHARAN @colhari2
China under President Xi Jinping is promoting the
revival of the Silk Route as well as the 21st Century Maritime Silk Route in a
big way as a part of its strategic westward reach. It involves reaching out to
South Asian countries as well as the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India by its
size, soft power and economic clout dominates both the subcontinent and the
Indian Ocean neighbourhood.
If
we go by his performance so far, president Xi has emerged as a pragmatist who
does not lose sight of his end goals as long as his "core interests"
are not threatened. China's media comments after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's
three-nation visit in the IOR indicate a better appreciation in Beijing of
India's role in IOR. Perhaps president Xi having factored Modi's assertive
leadership style understood that wishing away India in this region would not be
easy and it would not benefit China. So Beijing seems to be in a mood to
cooperate and coordinate (if possible) its activities with India in this
region.
This
could be related to the international strategic environment as well as China's
desire to take advantage of India's growth story which is being rewritten under
Modi's leadership. Of course, China objections to prime minister Modi's
February 2015 -visit to Arunachal Pradesh showed that despite all the cooing
comments Beijing would not compromise upon its core interest.
India's
experience in dealing with China holds an important lesson for Sri Lanka's
leadership - there will be no mixing of metaphors when it comes to China's
national interest. We can expect President Maithripala Sirisena to face the
moment of truth when he talks with president Xi. So the Sri Lankan argument
about cleaning up corruption in all projects including the Chinese ones just as
China is doing, may not cut much ice except sympathetic nods.
China
will be attaching importance to the Sri Lankan leader's visit because of the not so friendly impression he and
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had created in the run up to the election.
They decried Chinese-promoted mega projects as extravagant and suspected the
opaque processes adopted to promote them as the source of corruption to benefit
Rajapaksa clan. They had also accused Mahinda Rajapaksa of being partial to
China at the cost of Sri Lanka's cordial relations with India. Chinese normally
do not forget such comments easily.
Chinese
leaders would mince no words about their unhappiness at such remarks in
one-to-one talks. (Probably they would have done this when foreign minister
Samaraweera visited China earlier (preparatory to Sirisena's visit).
Sri
Lanka is perhaps the most important among the Indian Ocean islands to promote
China's present strategic objectives. This is further increased due to the
geo-strategic advantage India already enjoys in Sri Lanka. So China's first
priority would be to consolidate its existing goodwill and protect the economic
assets it had created during the Rajapaksa days. So we can expect China to make
serious efforts to show Sri Lanka the tangible economic advantages in resuming
the stalled projects. Some of them like the rural water supply project are
really value-added ones.
Among
the projects Colombo port reclamation is most prestigious and strategically
important for China both from maritime security and commercial points of view.
Already Sri Lanka appears to have tacitly agreed
Even
before the visit, China had been relentlessly pursuing action through local
media (as well as using some political connections by an NGO's statement in the
court) to clear its association with any criminal or corrupt activity. China is
conscious of its emergence as a global power and reacts strongly when small
countries make accusations against it
However,
to save faces on both sides we can expect Chinese to provide access to books to
show their hands are clean. They would make some concessions on financial terms
by some deferred repayment and probably loosen some clause relating to Chinese
control of "sovereign" rights parts ceded to them as a part of the
project. We can also expect easier terms for fresh loans.
Of
course, we can expect China to beef up the existing strategic security
partnership pact between the two countries. Sri Lanka has strong appetite for
improving its naval platforms and aircraft for surveillance and protection of
its near ocean waters. To meet this need the existing joint committee on
coastal security could be activated with offer of coastal naval craft and
speedy delivery of those in pipeline. We can also expect China to try and free
Sri Lanka from Indian navy's monopoly in training the island nation's naval
forces. But this is more easily said than done.
Lastly,
China seems to be interested in promoting China-Sri Lanka-India trilateral
cooperation as a win-win strategy for "peace and prosperity" of the
three countries. Though foreign minister Wang Yi had spoken about it, it does not appear to be within the
realms of probability in near term. While we can expect to hear more about this
after Modi's visit to Beijing, president Xi might bring up the idea in his
talks with president Sirisena as he would probably welcome such an initiative.
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