Col R Hariharan
|31-5-2020| Sri Lanka Perspectives May 2020 |
South Asia Security Trends, June 2020 | www.security-risks.com
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa completed
six months in office on May 18. He came after the Sinhala majority voted him to
power after they were disillusioned by the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government’s
failure to deliver on their promises. The last straw was the failure of the
government in taking decisive action to stop the Easter Sunday massacre by
Jihadi terrorists in spite to getting advance notice.
The
first-time president, an army veteran, has lived up to his image as guardian of
Sinhala Buddhist heritage and champion of the armed forces. He minced no words
in his refusal to take action on accountability for alleged war crimes as
promised by Sri Lanka at the UN Human Rights Council. He did not bother
about the political hierarchy of his own party in making appointments, drawing
from a pool of civil service and military talent. In his vocabulary, devolution
has become a bad word; Sinhala being majority their writ will prevail he
declared. It has left Tamil polity stranded as they are encountering a
president, who has said a loud NO to their core interest – devolution. Muslims
are equally unhappy as the aftermath of Easter Sunday attack has left them
cowering from hostile Sinhala backlash in society. Muslim politicians accustomed
to cosy up to the majority party in power are spending time to protect
themselves from the long arm of law looking into their wheeling and dealing.
Memories of earlier Rajapaksa rule are haunting human rights activists as the
victims of enforced disappearances due to the war continue languish.
If
there is an award for plain speaking politician, he would win it hands down. It
is too early to ask the question how much it would benefit him in Sri Lanka
politics.
He
understood the mood of the nation to lay down his priorities: tightening
national security concerns particularly relating to jihadi terrorism, tax cuts
and incentives for small and medium enterprises, reducing inflation and beefing
up economy and closely orchestrate actions to “curb corruption and prosecuting
the corrupt.” He also quickly ordered structural changes to revamp economy and
strengthen security apparatus including the intelligence set up and dismantled
the corruption investigation set up put in place by the previous government.
The
astute President has courted the Chinese, while remaining on the right side of
India. It has paid dividends as Indian prime minister Modi reciprocated his
gesture advancing a $400 million currency swap facility to bale out Sri Lanka
from economic crisis. According to a New Delhi report in the Island, the
President on May 23 sought a “special” $1.1 billion currency swap facility to
boost Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves under strain after COVID-19
pandemic paralysed the economy. India is likely to meet his request to ‘top up’
the $400 million the currency swap already sanctioned.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic
threat has become the biggest challenge the President has encountered in the
last six months. It is likely to last during the whole of 2020. As Sri Lanka
has a fairly well organised public health system, it has managed the public
health emergency better than some of the South Asian neighbours. The number of
COVID-19 cases as on May 31 have reached 1620 and 829 patients under treatment
while only 10 people have died so far. President Gotabaya has decided to
impose a nationwide curfew on May 31 to avoid the unnecessary gathering of
people as advised by health authorities. The curfew is likely to continue to
till virus spread within quarantine curfew centres is brought under control. But tertiary effect of the Covid
virus globally is having a crippling effect on Sri Lanka tourism industry and
associated service industries. The other challenge is the loss of remittance
income from overseas Sri Lankans which will swell the unemployed figure in the
island nation. These are going to test President Gotabaya’s ability to govern
under dire circumstances.
Two
months back the President was in a hurry to hold the parliamentary election and
dissolved the parliament six months in advance. He wanted to gain two
thirds parliamentary majority in the parliament to rid of 19th
Amendment to the constitution which curtailed some of the powers of the
executive president and increased his accountability to the parliament.
However,
it seems the COVID-19 has become the spoiler of his aspirations. Sri Lanka
parliamentary election, which was rescheduled to be held on June 20, is not
going to be held. The Election Commission (EC) has taken the decision to wait
for the Supreme Court ruling on petitions challenging the EC’s decision on
holding elections on June 20 when the Corona virus pandemic has crippled daily
life. The parliamentary election act stipulates five weeks or 35 days as the
minimum period for campaigning. In view of the Covid-19 pandemic, EC Director General Saman Rathnayake
has said the commission would need 70 days to finalise preparations for the
election. Rathnayake said more election staff would be required for the poll
and to maintain social distancing more facilities would be required.
According
to reports, the government is not happy with the EC’s inability to conduct the
general election on the scheduled day of June 20. As a result the EC is
facing criticism from government supporters. In particular, the EC’s objection
to politicising the government payment of Rs 5000 to marginalised and poor
families to help them during the lockdown period has drawn a lot of flak from
Rajapaksas’ supporters.
The
continuing uncertainty about holding the parliamentary election has become a
major cause for concern for political parties and civil society alike. As per
the Constitution, the election was to be held within three months after
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa dissolved the parliament on March 2, i.e. June 2.
According to the constitution the
President and the caretaker government can rule the country only for three
months without a parliament. The President has refused to consider recalling
the dissolved parliament, although almost all opposition political parties had
requested him to do so. This has triggered a lot of discussion among leaders of
civil society and political parties on the future course of action.
As Jehan Perera, civil society
activist says “The direction of Sri Lanka’s democratic process hangs in the
balance. As many as seven cases with regard to the general elections and the
presidential decree dissolving parliament are pending before the Supreme Court.
The outcome of the judicial decision may decide whether Sri Lanka will continue
to be governed by the president and caretaker cabinet until the general
elections actually take place to bring in a new parliament.”
If that happens the Rajapaksas may
not be too unhappy; there is enough precedence the world over in many
countries, where the governments have assumed extraordinary powers as part of
the fight against COVID-19 pandemic. That could have unforeseen repercussions
as under President Gotabaya’s dispensation more and more government bodies are
being placed under Ministry of Defence (MoD) or under army officers.
Article 44 (2) of the constitution enables the President to determine the
assignment of subjects and functions to ministers and non-Cabinet appointment holders. In
March, he placed the Department of Immigration and Emigration under the MoD. He
assigned matters relating to immigration, emigration and Sri Lankan citizenship
to the MoD through an Extraordinary Gazette notification.
President
Gotabaya has now appointed senior military officers as secretaries to two key
ministries. Maj General Sanjeeva Munasinghe, chief of the Army Medical Corps,
is entrusted with the running of the Health Ministry, when the country is
combating Covid-19 pandemic. Maj General Sumedha Perera(Retd) has been
appointed as secretary to the Mahaweli, Agriculture, Irrigation and Rural
Development Ministry which is the biggest ministry with enormous
resources.
Six institutions including the Api Wenuwen Api Fund (AWAF) and
the National Police Academy (NPA) under the Ministry of Defence. The AWAF
was set up jointly by MoD and Central Bank to build 50,000 houses for serving armed
forces personnel in 2009; the NPA used to function under the Police Department.
The Academy of Financial Studies – the training arm of the Ministry of Finance,
the National Authority for the Implementation of Chemical Weapons Convention
which was under the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, Sri Lanka Institute of
National Defence Studies and the Department of Multi-Purpose Development Task
Force are some of the other institutions brought under MoD. The Multi Purpose
Development Task Force headed by Maj Gen Nanda Mallawarachchi (Retd.) has been
set up with the objective of creating a poverty-free Sri Lanka as stated in the
presidential policy statement.
This
would indicate the President has more confidence in officers of the armed
forces than civil administrators. While it can produce results in the short
term, it is against the civil administrative responsibility of elected
governments. Under the circumstances, with no elected parliament in place, can the President get his act together
to convince the public of his ability to meet their democratic aspirations with
a caretaker government? Only Sri Lankans can answer this question.
Col R Hariharan, a retired MI
officer, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force
in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for
China Studies and South Asia Analysis Group Email: haridirect@gmail.com Blog:: https://col.hariharan. info
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