Col R Hariharan |30-6-2020| Sri Lanka Perspectives June 2020
| South Asia
Security Trends, July 2020 | www.security-risks.com
Election contretemps
The much debated and delayed Sri Lanka
parliamentary election is now scheduled to be held on August 5. After missing two dates set earlier for the
election, after the disposal of eight fundamental rights cases, the Election
Commission (EC) announcement came with a lot of conditions on conduct of
campaigning as well as the elections, thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Each general election has its own flavor;
but never before Sri Lanka had to conduct an election when the administration
was fighting a global pandemic threatening the country. This makes the present
election extraordinary because the Covid-19 pandemic has dislocated normal life
and queered the pitch of usual election narratives of political parties.
However, the gods seem to be favouring
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa as the Covid pandemic is showing signs of being
tamed. The virus strike rate started falling by end of May and as on June 30,
it stands at 2042 cases with only 10 deaths, according to WHO statistics. This
is a record any nation can be proud of; and it comes in handy to boost the
election prospects of the President’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Yet another
good news for the public was the lifting of the curfew imposed to contain the pandemic
from March 20 onwards; the day-long curfew had continued for more than a month,
before the timings were modified to night times in most of the areas.
The election will test the ability of the
Election Commission (EC) and the administration to conduct it as per the health
guidelines to control the spread of the virus.
A total of 7,452 candidates are in the fray
for a seat in the 225-member parliament. Members to the parliament are elected
by proportional representation for five-year term. Out of the 225 members, 196
will be elected from 22 multi-member electoral districts, while the remaining
29 MPs will be elected from National Lists of their political parties and
independent groups based on the proportion of their share in the national vote.
There are over 16.263 million voters
eligible to participate in the election as against 15.04 million eligible
voters in the 2015 parliamentary election. In the 2015 election 77.6 percent
voters participated. However, strict public health restrictions in place both
during the campaign period and the conduct of elections could adversely affect
the voter percentage.
As in other South Asian countries, election
campaigns are colourful in Sri Lanka also with lots of public participation.
However, the Covid pandemic seems to have dampened the mood so far. Health
guidelines have restricted major election rallies to one for a district. Participation in public limits meetings to 100
persons. Social distancing norms are applicable to seating at meetings for both
the audience and speakers. Before the meeting is organized health official has
to be given three day notice. Moreover, participants even in small gatherings
are required to provide their names, addresses and phone numbers. This is
likely to discourage active public participation in campaign meetings. So
political parties will have to innovatively use social media for campaigning.
The UNP has already launched its social media campaign. Prime Minister Mahinda
Rajapaksa has already flagged off the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) political
campaign. According to the party, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa would be joining
the campaign from July 3.
No dearth of rhetoric
In spite of all the limitations imposed by
health guidelines on the election campaign, there seems to be no dearth of
electoral rhetoric, many of them are sensational, while a few them are made
only for shock effect.
A
typical example is the political maelstorm triggered by former minister and ex-
LTTE Eastern Commander “Col” Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan alias Karuna Amman’s
flippant statement at a political rally in Ampara on June 19. He boasted that
he had massacred 2000-3000 Sri Lanka soldiers in one night in Elephant Pass responding
in response to an opposition leader’s remark that Karuna was more dangerous
than Corona virus. Two CID teams were sent to Ampara and Batticaloa to gather
more information about Karuna’s “claim” as though they had suddenly discovered
his LTTE antecedent, his role in LTTE operations and in establishing in Eastern
Province on a firm footing. The CID recorded his statement for seven and a half
hours. In the slanging match that followed, Karuna’s statement in an interview
alleging that opposition leader Sajith Premadasa’s father President Ranasinga
Premadasa had given the LTTE 5000 rifles and one crore rounds of ammunition,
targeting the UNP, was typical election rhetoric.
UN
Human Rights Council added its penny’s worth to the Karuna controversy by
tweeting "We note that #Karuna, former LTTE commander & Government
minister, is being questioned for alleged past crimes. He should also be investigated
for wholesale recruitment of child soldiers, a crime under int’l law.
Accountability should apply to everyone in Sri Lanka."
New narrative in Tamil politics?
With the UNP a
divided house, there are clear indications that the Tamil National Alliance
(TNA), which is the largest group of Tamil parties, is changing its strategy to
do business with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who has come favoured the
Sinhala Buddhist majority in his actions. Nothing illustrates the President’s action
better than the appointment of an all Sinhala “task force composed of members
of Buddhist clergy and the military to report on Archaeological Heritage
Management in Tamil and Muslim majority Eastern Province.
TNA spokesman MA
Sumanthiran said last week in Batticaloa that they will support the government
if it takes up constitutional reform. His logic is “The President is considered
a war hero and if he supports a new Constitution, the South will not oppose
him. Though Sumanthiran, articulate in Sinhala, was targeted by hardliners as a
traitor after he distanced himself with Prabhakaran’s terrorist methods, the
Global Tamil Forum (GTF) came out in his support. TNA supremo R Sampanthan’s
congratulatory message to Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa on his completion of
50 years in active politics, also struck a conciliatory note. Describing Mahinda
as a Man of the People, the octogenarian Tamil leader urged him to spearhead
the move for a new constitution. "Sri Lanka as a Country faces
serious unresolved problems. The country direly needs a new Constitution, the
supreme Law of the country….A strong Leader with the support of the people is required
to fulfil this urgent and compulsory need. Hon. Mahinda Rajapaksa is
undoubtedly in that position. Hon. Mahinda Rajapaksa should rise to greater
heights by undertaking and accomplishing that task. This should raise him to
the level of a statesman and give him not merely national but international
recognition and stature. He can be assured of our fullest support in this
matter.”
The rival Tamil
Makkal Tesiya Kuttani (TMTK) led by former Chief Minister CV Wigneswaran seems
to have taken cue from the TNA and written a letter to the President seeking
the release of 91 Tamil political prisoners. The former CM is said to have hinted of his
readiness to talk to the President, after the elections on “national question”,
according to well known Sri Lanka analyst Sathiyamoorthy.
But a new constitution by itself is no
panacea for Tamils, as Federalism is a “no go” area for President Rajapaksa.
But there are a host of other doables like the repeal of the Prevention of
Terrorism Act, release of Tamil political prisoners and bringing to a closure
of the vexing issue of forcibly disappeared persons if the Tamil parties manage
to improve their working relations with the President and the PM. This is more
easily said than done, as lack of unity is a unique feature of Tamil politics
in Sri Lanka.
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