Takeaways from Sri Lanka general election

Col R Hariharan 

After the din of recently concluded general election in Sri Lanka is over, the United National Party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has been sworn in as Sri Lanka’s prime minister. He is poised to work with a national unity government. There are eight takeaways from the election and its aftermath that can help in visualising the future course of events in the island nation.

1.     Positive trends: A number of positive trends have emerged both in the conduct and in the aftermath of elections. People have shown that whipping up of Sinhala nationalist rhetoric or holding up the bogey of revival of Tamil separatism is not enough to win elections. They would rather prefer clean governance than ostentatious of display of power by the rulers. The peaceful conduct of elections holds a lesson for other South Asian nations: if the national leadership is determined it can ensure the government, administration and election commission come together, without working at cross purposes, to conduct peaceful elections. The abhorrent trend of local politicians waving pistols and intimidating the public that had invaded the body politics in recent times. The election has shown they will have to change their act.

2.    Rajapaksa’s fault lines: The electoral defeat of the former president for a second time within six months showed that he had not understood the dynamics of change that had become embedded in public discourse to win elections. Comparatively, Sirisena despite his low profile and soft rhetoric had done better. Of course, Rajapaksa will continue to be respected as a national hero for eliminating the Tamil Tigers. Yes; Southern Sinhala Buddhist constituency will probably continue to vote for him. No; that will not be sufficient to win an election without an inclusive agenda. And the bogey of revival of terrorism of the LTTE kind probably carries only limited credibility.  The failure of Rajapaksa come to power showed the limitations of banking upon personality cult. But that is not enough to recoup credibility in public life; integrity in action is equally important. His reputation appears to have been badly bruised by allegations of corruption, misuse of office, family politics and cronyism. So Rajapaksa has to clean up his act rather than depending upon his cronies’ advice if he does not want to fade away from political limelight.  And keep the family at arm’s length; they have already done enough damage to him.

3.    Sirisena’s strengths: President Sirisena has demonstrated that he was unfazed by political obstacles in the run up to the election. Probably other Rajapaksa and other SLFP leaders had underestimated his courage of conviction to pursue his end goals with doggedness and push aside political obstacles.  Though he was not strong within the party to prevent Rajapaksa hijacking the SLFP and the UPFA alliance, Sirisna showed enough mettle to express his determination to prevent Rajapaksa coming back to power. Probably this created enough confusion among the leaders who jumped to the Rajapaksa camp to carry out damage control.  Sirisena dissolved the Central Committee which was working against his interests as party leader at the first opportunity without the usual political palaver. If he can build upon his credibility, chances for the durability of the national unity government are bright.  And that is necessary to fulfill the promises he made to get the January 8^th mandate from the people.

4.    Ranil’s tough task table: The smooth-talking prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has a tough task ahead. From his interview to The Hindu, he appears to be aware of it. Completion of the structural change process to improve integrity of national institutions; improve accountability of the government and administration to the people; complete corruption investigations and bring the culprits to book; refine the election process; resume the political process with Tamil leadership to bring it to a logical conclusion;  and last, but not least, build national consensus to produce a constitution to embed the changes made. This a tall order for any political leader to fulfill. Ranil had failed to take the peace process 2002 to a satisfactory conclusion; and President Kumaratunga and Prabhakaran were there to share the blame. But he has none now. Can he succeed? He appears to be clear that the UNP and SLFP have to come together to fulfill his tasks. Though President Sirisena is with him, will SLFP stop sharpening their axes and rise up to the occasion to help the prime minister?  Even the famous court astrologers would not dare to answer this question; so it’s wait-and-watch time now. 

5.    Muslim polity: The election has shown that the Muslim voter is no more the meek follower of their leaders.  They cannot take the peoples support for granted any more. That means in future the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and the All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) will think twice before going along with Rajapaksa. Rajapaksa’s failure to attend to the concerns of Muslim community during anti-Muslim violence by fringe elements has cost him dearly in both the elections he faced. It could haunt him for some time despite all his skill at political maneuvering.  

6.    Tamils want positive action: The Tamil voter wants action-oriented approach than an emotional approach to improve his lot now. He is getting tired of empty rhetoric glorifying Tamils, notwithstanding the indelible and grime memories of the LTTE armed struggle for separate Eelam. The moderates within the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) leadership had excluded former LTTE cadres in their electoral discourse. But they cannot ignore their genuine grievances highlighted by their independent group, in any political dialogue with the Wickremesinghe government.  To sum up, TNA should work on an action plan to immediately improve the quality of life  of the war-affected population still living on the fringe as well as take up development work without any delay. For this they need to adopt a nuanced approach than solely depending upon resumption of political dialogue process. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has indicated that his willingness to rework the federal format within the ambit of 13^th constitutional amendment. Though this may not meet Tamil aspirations fully, Tamils should use this opportunity  to work with him rather than against him lest they miss the opportunity when the constitution is recast. In a nut shell, Tamil leaders will have to be pragmatic rather than dogmatic in their approach.

7.    No corruption: Rajapaksa’s failure showed people are probably not going to forget the allegations of massive corruption against him soon. This would come as a surprise for many because corruption is an endemic problem in Sri Lanka, just as it is in India or any other South Asian country. So political leaders of all hues will have to clean up their style of backroom politics. Such an environment would enable President Sirisena to introduce checks to root out not only corruption in public life and government but also break up the politico-bureaucrat-business nexus that had been the bane of Sri Lanka. 

8.  Time for positive action from Tamil Nadu: The defeat of Rajpaksa has deprived Tamil Nadu politicians and TV anchors of their favourite whipping horse. The soft profile of Sirisena, and lack of fireworks in Sri Lanka politics now and conciliatory noises at the UNHRC have pushed Sri Lanka from mainstream political discourse in Tamil Nadu. The success of Sirisena-Wickremesinghe combine in the parliamentary election has further downscaled Sri Lanka from visual media’s TRP quest. Time has come for the ruling AIADMK to get away from political rhetoric and to  produce a broader positive action agenda to benefit Sri Lankan Tamils. They could expand upon the positive vibes created in the wake of Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Jaffna to benefit Tamils trying to pick up their normal life. As a first step AIADMK should interact not only with Sri Lankan Tamil leaders but also the people to understand their pressing needs.  Tamil Nadu has the resources to undertake this; what is needed is the will. Some of the areas that come to mind are increasing job opportunities for widows and youth by investing in new enterprises and opening up educational institutions in Tamil Nadu. Such positive action could reinforce the AIADMK’s political strength particularly at a time when opposition parties are in total disarray and state elections are in the horizon.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence with the Indian Peace Keeping Force (1987-90). He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-mail for feedback: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info]

Courtesy: Centre for Asia Studies CAS article No 0003/215 http://www.caschennai.org/?p=47   

https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/takeaways-from-sri-lanka-general-election/

Rajapaksa’s loss spells victory for democracy in Sri Lanka

The former president will have to sit in the Opposition benches in the same parliament where his writ ran challenged.

COLONEL R HARIHARAN  @colhari2 |POLITICS| 5-minute read| 18-8-2015

Former president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s hopes of coming back to power as Sri Lanka’s prime minister crashed when the. United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA), which fielded him as a candidate, lost out narrowly to the United National Party (UNP)-led coalition in the parliamentary election held on August 17.

 In the most peacefully conducted election in Sri Lanka in recent times where over 70 per cent of the people are said to have voted, the UPFA could win only eight of the 22 electoral districts as against its rival UNP’s victory in 11 districts. The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK)-led Tamil National Alliance (TNA) won in three predominantly Tamil districts of Jaffna, Vanni and Batticaloa South.  It would support UNP-led government rather than that of UPFA.

In Sri Lanka’s electoral system, out of the 225 parliament members, 196 members are elected through proportional representation system from 22 electoral districts. Each party is allocated a number of seats from the quota assigned to the district in proportion to votes secured by the party. The balance of 29 seats known as national list are allotted to parties according to the country-wide proportional votes they obtain in the election.

Rajapaksa conceded defeat in the morning of August 18 even before results were officially announced. He told the AFP news agency "My dream of becoming prime minister has faded away…I am conceding. We have lost a good fight." Though a message from his twitter account later contradicted this, he must have seen the writing on the wall early in the day.

As Wickremesinghe described, the presidential election was in a way a referendum. Over 15 million voters of Sri Lanka had to decide whether they wanted Rajapaksa’s return to politics after a decade in power. Once hailed as Sri Lanka strongman, Rajapaksa must be a disappointed man to be rejected once again by the people in his bid for national leadership within a year after he lost the presidential election in January 2015. He had high hopes of coming back to power as prime minister after the powers of executive presidency were cut down to size by President Maithripala Sirisena. Rajapaksa also had to overcome the efforts of Sirisena as chairman of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), to prevent him from contesting as a UPFA candidate.

Though neither the UPFA nor UNP-led alliance is likely to have a majority in parliament, Ranil Wickremesinghe, victorious leader of the UNP having larger number of seats, is expected to be sworn in once again as prime minister. President Sirisena is likely to pick his loyalists within the SLFP to join the national alliance government led by Wickremesinghe. Thus both Sirisena and Wickremesinghe will be able to follow up in action to fulfill their agenda for structural and constitutional reforms and pull up the sagging economy.

Rajapaksa’s failure  is a political triumph for Sirisena, particularly after senior members of the SLFP central committee challenged his leadership and tried their best to bring back Rajapaksa to the detriment of Sirisena loyalists. Sirisena sent a strong message of his authority  and sacked 13 senior members of the central committee including the all important secretaries of UPFA and SLFP and appointed his own nominees soon after polling ended on August 17.

But Sirisena’s action could be challenged when the Supreme Court reopens on August 31 from vacation. According to a former chief justice, as per the party constitution only the secretary of the party has to nominate the national list members. On the other hand court action may well be deferred as some of those affected appear to be making friendly noises to get back into good books of Sirisena.

Rajapaksa as a successful member of the UPFA will have to sit in the opposition benches in the same parliament where his writ ran unchallenged when he was president. If he is chosen as a leader of the opposition by UPFA members, he will be presiding over an anomalous situation when some of the members join the cabinet. Would he do it? 

Out of power and after two successive failures, Rajapaksa’s political influence has been slashed.  But his support base among the conservative Buddhist nationalist southern Sinhalas appears to be largely intact. Will he bounce back into politics? Apart from Rajapaksa, two other people – Sirisena and Wickremesinghe – also are probably pondering over this question   

In addition to former president Rajapaksa, his brother Chamal Rajapaka and son Namal Rajapaksa have also won. This would ensure an element of protection for the three Rajapaksas as they cannot be arrested when the parliament is in session. This becomes important in the investigations into cases of corruption and misuse of office now underway. 

But this will spell trouble for Rajapaksas. Mahinda is facing cases of corruption in handling of public funds and his brother and former minister Basil is tangled in another similar case in the law courts. These cases are likely to move on a fast pace. But we can expect both Sirisena and Wickremesinghe to tread carefully lest they antagonize Sinhala nationalist segment by vindictive action.

As far as India is concerned the news of Wickremesinghe combine’s victory would be welcome though even had Rajapaksa come to power he would have handled India with kid gloves. As far as China is concerned, probably it would rue the failure of Rajapaksa as a lesson learnt, and court the new leadership to get its stalled projects through and get back to business.  Nothing moves Chinese like money and President Xi Jinping like 21st Century Maritime Road. Sri Lanka is important for China on both counts.

#Mahinda Rajapaksa, #Sri Lanka Elections

[Col R Hariharan, a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia, was head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force (1987-90). He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Studies. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Website: http://col.hariharan.info ]

Courtey: India Today Opinion portal DailyO   http://www.dailyo.in/politics/maithripala-sirisena-mahinda-rajapaksha-upfa-unp-sri-lanka-elections/story/1/5736.html

Three ifs and four buts about Sri Lanka election

In the past Rajapaksa has proved to be a past master in ‘under the table’ deals.

COLONEL  R HARIHARAN  @colhari2  |POLITICS | 3-Minute read |17-8-2015

Forecasting elections is hazardous in Sri Lanka. And the general election held on Monday makes the job even more difficult. The three seasoned political stalwarts - former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, president Maithriala Sirisena his foe within the United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) and Ranil Wickremesinghe leading the United National Front for Good Governance (UNFGG) - are jockeying for power. 

Though poll forecasts had predicted Ranil's coalition having an edge over Rajapaksa's UPFA, at least twice in the past they were proved wrong. Rajapaksa won the presidential poll in 2009 and lost it in 2014, belying the predictions. The question of both the UPFA and UNFGG coalitions ending up without a majority in the 225-seat in the parliament looms large now. Much depends upon Rajapaksa regaining public credibility for his coalition to win.

A number of  ifs and buts, however, make the post election environment hazy . 

The three “ifs” 

1.   If the UPFA gets a majority in parliament, pressure on Sirisena would increase to nominate Rajapaksa as prime minister. He may not able to prevent it if his constituency within the coalition loses out.

2.  Even if the UNFGG gets a marginal majority of the seats, Wickremesinghe has said he would form a national alliance government of all parties. This could tempt winners from the UPFA to join the government as they did earlier. 

3.  Sri Lanka has no anti-defection law. So if neither coalition wins a majority, whoever can do political horse trading better can count on forming the government. In the past, Rajapaksa has proved to be a past master in such “under the table” deals.

The four “buts”

1.   Both Rajapaksa-loyalists and Sirisena-loyalists of the UPFA are working to undermine each other’s candidates. This is likely to reduce the coalition's winning chances. This could, moreover, give a free run to Wickremesinghe's coalition particularly with his added attraction of national government. 

2.  Last presidential election showed that massive turnout of minority voters could decide the winner. But parliamentary election in the 22 electoral districts that elect 195 members is different from presidential poll; there are number of local issues which come into play in this election. How many of them would be drawn to the polling booths now? The electoral system has also been modified for this election. Both Wickremesinghe and the minority parties appear to be aware of this and have been focusing on national issues. But how much it will excite the minority voters to exercise their franchise?

3.  Rajapaksa has been plugging Sinhala 'nationalism' in his campaign. He was defeated in 2009 despite flogging the nationalist credentials because allegations of corruption and misuse of power had clouded his image. Has he regained the credibility of  Sinhala voters who had generally supported him? More importantly, would the swing voters prefer his reincarnation as prime minister?

4.  The Tamil  National Alliance (TNA) has always managed to win most of the seats in the northern and eastern parts of the country. However, it always had internal differences regarding the struggle for preserving the Tamil identity. With the exit of the Tamil Tigers (LTTE), the goal of the Tamils recovering from the post-war trauma is to survive rather than pursue the quest for a Tamil Eelam. The TNA had not been able to deliver its election promises in the past due to both Colombo's inaction and its own inability to articulate a common agenda. TNA's internal differences have now become deeper; how much it would affect its performance?  Wickremesinghe has said that he supported a federal solution for Tamil issue which is one of the articles of faith of TNA. But the moot question is how much TNA can push it through even if it wins most of the seats? In the past it failed because it had not developed the fine art of political opportunism. In a parliament without either coalition winning a majority, can it change its style of politics?

By Tuesday afternoon the picture will clear on who is winning and who is losing. And the great game of horse trading may well begin after that.

Courtesy: India Today Opinion portal DailyO            http://www.dailyo.in/politics/sri-lanka-elections-mahinda-rajapaksa-maithripala-sirisena-ranil-wickremesinghe/story/1/5711.html

China and Rajapaksa’s bid to return to power in Sri Lanka

Col R Hariharan

[This is an extract of a brief interview with an Indian TV news channel recorded on August 13, 2015  on China and Sri Lanka general elections being held on August 17, 20015.]

Q: China is looking at the entry of Rajapaksa in the (election) race with a lot of interest. Since January when Sirisena took over, despite polite noises, China has lost out its position of strength (gained) under Rajapaksa. So do you think China would definitely root for Rajapaksa as PM?  

A: Generally, China does not interfere in internal affairs in other countries. That would apply to Sri Lanka elections also. But it has a huge financial and strategic stakes in Sri Lanka.  So definitely China would be happy to see Rajapaksa back in power as PM because it has an excellent personal equation with him. Apart from this, China’s major projects in Sri Lanka, in which it has invested over $ 4.6 billion, have been stalled after the new government came to power. Though some of the projects are now being resumed, there had been no progress in some others like the Colombo Port reclamation project costing $ 1.4 billion. This project has strategic relevance for China as it would help China gain total control of over 300 acres of reclaimed land close to the mouth of the Colombo harbour.  China would definitely like these projects completed without any further delay.

Q: In case Rajapaksa returns to power, what possible impact it would be having on Indo-Sri Lanka relations, given Rajapaksa’s tilt towards  China?

A: Though Rajapaksa would probably like to adopt a pro-China policy, he is well known for his pragmatism. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Sri Lanka has paid a lot of dividend. India's concerns have now been brought to the fore. 

And we can see their impact in his UPFA coalition’s manifesto. In the words of Dr Dayan Jayatilleka, foreign policy advisor of UPFA, “specific mention has been made about India in the foreign policy segment of the UPFA manifesto. Good relations with India is axiomatic. Good relations with India will be a corner stone of the UPFA foreign policy.” 

Moreover, Rajapaksa knows that after the recent constitutional amendment, the freewheeling days of executive presidency are over, and the prime minister is more accountable to the parliament now. So he would probably take these aspects into consideration.  But first, he has to win the election.    

       

Q: If Rajapaksa does not make it, is it the end of his political career?

A: No. I don’t think so. Rajapaksa is a political veteran who has loyal followers in Sri Lanka and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). So if he fails it would be a major political setback; but not curtains for him. What must be worrying for him are the two cases of misappropriation of public money including employees provident fund which has been filed against him the court for legal action. Equally damaging to his reputation could be the Tajudeen murder case which was hushed up during his regime; Rajapaksa’s son Namal Rajapaksa's name has figured in the case. That must be worrying him because they would affect his public credibility.

(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E- mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: www.col.hariharan.info)

Courtesy: Chennai Centre for China Studies C3S Paper No 0155/2015 dated August 13, 2015  http://www.c3sindia.org/srilanka/5166

Revisiting India’s foreign policy under Modi

Col R Hariharan

[This article includes answers questions raised in a radio interview on August 12, 2015.]

Q: It is about fifteen months since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power. During this period foreign relations appear to have been given great importance. What do you think are the changes in India’s foreign policy now?

A: I am no expert on foreign policy; but as a strategic analyst I find that the basic tenets of our foreign policy enunciated after independence still continue to be the same. Our first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was a visionary; he evolved the foreign policy to further his holistic vision for India. It emphasized peace and harmonious relations with all countries and India finding its rightful place in the post-colonial world in keeping with its size and geostrategic location. He understood economic and industrial development as the keys to freeing the country from the shackles of colonial dependency and improving the lives of ordinary people. The five-year development plans were fashioned to achieve this.

From Nehru’s time foreign policy became prime minister-centric and has continued so, though the practice of appointing separate minister to look after external affairs came in vogue in 1964.  Under Nehru’s stewardship, India played a leadership role among the newly independent countries of Asia and Africa. He chose to develop close relations with Peoples Republic of China (PRC) which was shunned by the Western powers. He led the non-aligned movement with emphasis on five principles of panch sheel to avoid Cold War contretemps. Probably, China’s aggression in 1962 was a moment of truth to Nehru as much as the nation bringing home the world of real politick in which we exist.

Nehru’s successors were not visionaries of the same order and they were by and large mission-oriented. As a result the country grew more inward looking and foreign policy became means to the ends of political leadership. However, they stuck to the basic principles of our foreign policy as set by Nehru. The end of Cold War and realignment of global strategic alignments have led to changes in India’s priorities in relationship-building, but the basic contours of foreign policy have remained the same.

Prime Minister Modi is perhaps the first prime minister in a long time who has spelt out his vision for India, soon after he assumed office in May 2014. He articulated it in his Independence Day on August 15, 2014. Since then he has fleshed out his vision at various national forums. Its main ingredients include: boosting India’s industrial growth by inviting foreign investment in infrastructure with emphasis on making things in India to increase job opportunities; to upgrade digital infrastructure for timely delivery of services to the people by developing smart cities; improve grass root public services to provide better governance, education, healthcare and clean environment to help maintain social cohesion with gender equity, and lastly to enlarge India’s strategic influence in the Asia-Pacific region in keeping with its growing global economic power.

The prime minister has adopted a personalized style of relationship building with his counterparts in other countries, particularly with China, Japan and the U.S; this seems to have paid handsome dividends. He prioritised India’s neighbouring countries in his foreign visits to leverage on India’s soft power and influence. Though he has visited 25 countries, his priority seems to be the Asia-Pacific region and as a corollary China, Japan and the US have been his favoured destination.  He has departed from India’s traditional low profile foreign policy projection by making foreign interactions well publicized. Modi’s clear and assertive communication has helped him build bridges with the Indian Diaspora wherever he visited. Though Modi’s foreign policy initiatives may not have yielded all the results he desired, he has gained the attention of global leaders who have welcomed his development agenda. This is an important take away after 15 months because given India’s massive and confusing socio-political compulsions; in any case to fulfill Modi’s ambitious agenda would take at least a decade.

Q: Though India might have done well in its external front, there seems to be no progress in our relations with Pakistan. How do you visualize India-Pakistan relations in the future?

A: You are right; there had been really no breakthrough in our relations with Pakistan, though Prime Minister Modi’s invitation to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for his inauguration and meeting thereafter kindled hopes of improvement in the relationship. But unfortunately, such hopes have been belied. In fact it has worsened with the escalation in ceasefire violations, terrorist infiltrations and attacks triggering of separatist agitations in Jammu and Kashmir, even spilling over to neighbouring Punjab.

The core problem in relationship building with Pakistan is its elected government does not enjoy the freedom to fashion and execute its foreign policy and trade (with India) without the concurrence of the army. During the last year or so Pakistan army has enlarged its ability to influence government policy after it became a guarantor to its survival from terrorist threat by successfully carrying out large scale operations against the Pakistan Taliban (Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan) terrorists. So it is doubtful whether we can expect any change in Pakistan’s attitude to improve its relationship with India in the near future. The first step for it would involve Pakistan government taking firm action against all jihadi groups (patronized by the army) operating against India from Pakistani soil. Pakistan army has a deep seated grudge against the ignominy it suffered after Indian armed forces threw it out of East Pakistan, resulting in the creation of Bangladesh in 1971.Given this background, the future of India-Pakistan relations looks bleak as long Pakistan government continues to remain hostage to Pakistan army. The recent boost to Pakistan’s strategic relationship with China has introduced a new and unpredictable element in the bipartisan relationship with potential to indirectly influence it.

Q: How about India’s relations with China? Can we expect any major improvement in India-China relations in the near future?

We must be realistic in our expectations regarding China. Resolving the hardy perennials bugging India-China relations – China’s illegal occupation of Indian territory, large Chinese claims on Indian territory in the Northeast and finalizing a mutually acceptable demarcation of India-China boundary (as China has refused to accept Mc Mahon Line as the boundary) may take a long time. Though the two sides have nominated special representatives to discuss the issues, China does not seem to have an urge to bring them to a closure in the near future. Though modalities to avoid accidental intrusions and conflict have been worked out between the two countries, there had been no real progress on these issues. So avoidance of conflict, rather than resolving disputes once for all seems to be the agreed flavour of the parleys between the two countries.

However, fortunately China’s President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Modi are focusing on realising their dreams of benefiting their people through peaceful and harmonious relationship. Realising that there was no point in waiting for the resolution of their long standing disputes, both leaders have focused on building a strong economic, trade and commercial relationship by pooling their resources and geographical advantages for mutual benefit. China has reciprocated Modi’s invitation to invest in infrastructure and manufacturing industries in India. India has shown its readiness to join the BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar) corridor project linking India and China, though India has not made up its mind on joining China’s ambitious ‘Belt and Road’ initiative in linking China to Central and South Asia as well as the 21^st Century Maritime Silk Road to access Indian Ocean.

At the strategic level, there are both positive and negative developments. India has joined two international economic initiatives close to China’s heart – the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Bank launched by the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) grouping. India has also joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), started by China originally as an instrument of regional anti-terrorism cooperation, now evolving its own regional strategic dynamics. At the same time, India cannot afford to ignore China’s mega entry in Af-Pak region practically elbowing out India from the scene. Coupled with the whittling down of American presence and China’s massive aid of $46 billion aid to Pakistan (much more than the Marshall’s Plan outlay for post-war Europe), we can expect China to play increasingly an assertive role to further its strategic interests on our Western borders. This could emerge as a major, as yet unfathomed, factor in India-China relations in the coming years.

Q: With the rapid spread of Islamic State (ISIS)-spearheaded jihadi terrorism the world over, why India is not joining the global war on terror? Don’t you think it would be in India’s interest to do so?

Firstly, I would not use the Western coinage “global war on terror” to describe the operations of the U.S. and its Western and Gulf allies are carrying out in Iraq and Syria and elsewhere. There are a number of factors preventing India from joining the war against ISIS. The role of those carrying out the operations is suspect as their strategic objective is change of regimes in the Arab world which do not toe their line; as a result an arc of instability from Libya, Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Yemen has been created rendering at least a million refugees. The resulting instability has been exploited by ISIS, which is a clone of Al Qaeda. This war has been made more complex by its Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict of interest involving Saudi Arabia on side and Iran on the other. India has a huge Shia population, next only to Iran, and India’s role has to take this aspect into reckoning. There is an economic aspect also relevant to India. The conflict has affected Indian expatriates working in these countries and further escalation of the war or spread of destabilization would only increase the plight of nearly two million strong Indian-workforce in this region. 

There is no strategic context for India’s participation in this war, particularly when India has to safeguard its national security from Pakistan-based partners of Al Qaeda terrorists. In any case, India will have to deal with ISIS threat which could loom large at our own gates as when ISIS takes over the client groups of Al Qaeda in Pakistan. Moreover, militarily speaking, India does not have enough troops to spare for such a resource consuming counter-terrorism operation. Indian involvement could also worsen the operational capability of our armed forces at home, particularly when they are already reeling from shortage of weapons and armaments. Our first priority to should be to protect our own national interest; only then we should consider other requirements.

[Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia, is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info ] 

Written on August 15, 2014

Sri Lanka elections: tumbling skeletons and bumbling politicians

Col R Hariharan

With a week to go before Sri Lanka people elect a new parliament, former president Mahinda Rajapaksa predicted the United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA), which had fielded him, to win “up to” 117 seats. However, a pre-election survey showed only 27.5 percent voters preferred him over his bête noir and prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, leader of the rival United National Front for Good Governance (UNFGG), who led the survey with a hefty near 40 percent preference. 

The secret of Rajapaksa’s confidence may not be solely due to the good luck charm - an elephant hair bracelet – he is seen wearing these days.  Nor it can be astrological prediction that let him down badly in the presidential poll.

The survey conducted by the Centre for Policy Analysis end July showed Tamil and Muslim minority voters who handed him a defeat in the presidential election continue to be firm supporters of Wickremesinghe. However, it must be consoling for the former president to know that he remained the favourite of Sinhala voters with 36 percent support, while Wickremesinghe trailed him with 31.9 percent support.

Probably it was the Sinhala voter-support and the impressive line-up of UPFA leaders including some of the senior stalwarts of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), who turned up in his support on the stage with him probably encouraged Rajapaksa’s optimism at the press conference. Their support for him, despite their leader President Maithripala Sirisena’s dénouement of Rajapaksa, was probably heartwarming for the former president. He was so sure of UPFA getting a majority that he dismissed the idea of forming a national government as suggested by the United National Party (UNP) leader Wickremesinghe. Rajapaksa said it only showed the lack of confidence of his opponent.

The UPFA election manifesto for a change seems to be more voter friendly than in the past with the coalition opening the social media network to welcome interactive feedback from the voters. It is a welcome change from the days when Rajapaksa remained the sole fountainhead of wisdom of the coalition (has it changed?).

Despite Rajapaksa’s confidence the odds do not seem to favour him. His problems are more serious than Wickremesinghe’s. Rajapaksa is contesting an election when he is out of office for the first time after he became president in 2005. Now he has neither favours to trade for political support nor powers to command the official machinery that aided his election campaigns in the past.

Government officials openly canvassed in support of Rajapaksa in his heydays. When he contested the presidential poll for the second time, the then army commander appeared on the TV in his support! But the electoral environment has changed now. 

Police and election commission have remained neutral as far as possible. Army commander Lt Gen Crisanthe De Silva has issued a series of orders to prevent service personnel from engaging in political activities during the election lest they are lured by political parties canvassing for their support. The restrictions on service personnel include even to expressing their views in the social media network or allowing the use of army video footage for political propaganda. 

Army Headquarters has warned that punitive action would be taken against those contravening the orders. These orders could hurt Rajapaksa more than his opponents, as his military victory against the Tamil Tigers in 2009 had earned him more admirers among armed forces and their families than his opponents.

A second aspect is the continuing internal squabbles between Rajapaksa loyalists and anti-Rajapaksa factions that have paralysed the internal party apparatus. The convening of the SLFP central committee meeting has been suspended till after the election through a court order!  This has produced an anachronistic situation with the two factions openly working against each other rather than focusing on winning the election! Former president Chandrika Kumaratunga as well as President Sirisena have continued to remain in SLFP despite their stout opposition to Rajapaksa’s candidature. And they seem to be doing their bit to undermine the party support to Rajapaksa.

Ms Kumaratunga had been more direct in her attack on Rajapaksa; she has accused him of spreading racism and using religion to achieve political ends. Though Sirisena has said he would remain neutral, he has repeatedly appealed to the people for carrying forward the changes ushered in January 8 with the defeat of Rajapaksa and vote for corruption free government. 

In fact, at the farewell ministerial meeting of the cabinet, Sirisena told the outgoing cabinet that he was looking forward to work with them again to carry forward his January 8 agenda clearly hinting his support to the United National Party (UNP) led coalition.     

President Sirisena has continued to be firmly opposed to appointing Rajapaksa as prime minister even if the UPFA wins a majority and chooses him as the prime ministerial candidate. So we can expect “UPFA and SLFP Logjam-II” to be enacted even if Rajapaksa turns defeat into victory.

But more damaging to Rajapaksa are the skeletons tumbling out of the cupboards locked up during his regime. The latest allegation relates to the suspected murder of Sri Lanka’s rugby star Wasim Thajudeen whose body was found burnt inside his car in a Colombo suburb on May 17, 2012. Though at that time, the police closed the case as accidental death, Minister Dr Rajitha Senaratne had alleged that three Special Task Force (STF) personnel attached to Presidential Security Division at that time were involved in the murder. So the charred body was exhumed after the CID obtained a court order for further investigations as they considered it a murder. Evidently, there were a number of lapses in the earlier police investigation as many pieces of evidence were not considered.  The CID conducting the investigations for the second time said Thajudeen was attacked with a sharp object in the neck and beaten with a blunt object.  

There were scenes of low comedy as bumbling politicians from both UPFA and UNF camps traded threats and insults freely. When SLFP spokesman Dilan Perera took out four bottles of poison and invited the UNFGG members to drink them, UNP’s Harin Fernando retaliated by brandishing two cans of poison at a news conference and said Dilan Perera was welcome to drink them. Rival group of gangsters fired shots at an election meeting of the UNFGG in the early stages of the campaign. But overall probably there were less violent incidents this time perhaps due to greater vigilance and shorter gestation period for the election process.   

Ranil Wickremesinghe heading the UNFGG has not started counting the seats he would win; but he must be beaming at the survey results. He has entered the election fray under a cloud of corruption surrounding the Central Bank bond issue. How much it would affect the chances of the UNFGG, particularly with his emphasis on clean governance, remains the big question. As the pre-poll survey was conducted end July, generally swing votes can be expected to make all the difference between defeat and victory. So it is to be seen whether he would continue to retain the support base that helped him to engineer the defeat of Rajapaksa in the presidential poll.

The UNFGG manifesto like all election manifestos in Sri Lanka is tall on talk and full of promises. Whether it can deliver them particularly when the economy is cash strapped is the moot point; this applies to all political parties. But the most disappointing was the Tamil National Alliance(TNA) manifesto. It started with the traditional ‘manifesto focus’ on the history of Tamil struggle for equity that had been repeated many times, rather than bringing up front the burning issues of Tamils which have been tucked towards the end. How much it would impress the impatient younger generation of voters who are tired of pedantic style of politics and its ponderous ways remains to be seen. But the TNA’s advantage is it enjoys the support of Global Tamil Forum (GTF), perhaps the largest Tamil Diaspora body.

There are two other dark horses challenging the political free run TNA had been enjoying in the North and East. The ‘Crusaders for Democracy’ a new outfit formed of former cadres of the LTTE is contesting the election as an independent group focusing on the grievances of Tamils in the post war scene. It was cobbled by Vithyatharan, former editor of Uthayan, Jaffna Tamil daily, and political wheeler-dealer after the TNA refused to field any former LTTE cadres as its candidate. The entry of rehabilitated Tiger cadres in the political arena is a welcome sign that Tamils are at last coming to terms with the political reality of Sri Lanka after 2009.  But TNA’s bigger challenge could be from veteran Tamil politician GajendraKumar Ponnambalam-led Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF).

The UPFA campaign, de facto led by Rajapaksa, seems to have learnt a few things from his defeat in the presidential election as acknowledged by Dr Dayan Jayatilleka, the coalition’s foreign policy advisor, when he met the foreign correspondents at an interaction. He said “the foreign policy of the UPFA will be a series of concentric circles, the closest circle being the immediate neighbourhood. Specific mention has been made about India in the foreign policy segment of the UPFA manifesto. Good relations with India is axiomatic. Good relations with India will be a corner stone of the UPFA’s foreign policy.” On relations with other countries he said "the first circle in the series of concentric circles will be South Asia; the second will be Asia; the third will be Euro-Asia, the fourth will be the Global South and finally the world.”

Dayan’s foreign policy construct is logical; he had always valued India’s special status in Sri Lanka’s foreign policy firmament. But in the past, Rajapaksa had shown neither the patience nor the interest in such a nuanced approach to policy making. Can he change his style of work? Let us wait for the election results for the question to become relevant.

(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: haridirect@gmail.com   Blog: http://col.hariharan.info )