In the past Rajapaksa has proved to be a
past master in ‘under the table’ deals.
COLONEL
R HARIHARAN @colhari2 |POLITICS | 3-Minute read |17-8-2015
Forecasting elections is hazardous in Sri
Lanka. And the general election held on Monday makes the job even more
difficult. The three seasoned political stalwarts - former President Mahinda
Rajapaksa, president Maithriala Sirisena his foe within the United Peoples
Freedom Alliance (UPFA) and Ranil Wickremesinghe leading the United National
Front for Good Governance (UNFGG) - are jockeying for power.
Though poll forecasts had predicted Ranil's
coalition having an edge over Rajapaksa's UPFA, at least twice in the past they
were proved wrong. Rajapaksa won the presidential poll in 2009 and lost it in
2014, belying the predictions. The question of both the UPFA and UNFGG
coalitions ending up without a majority in the 225-seat in the parliament looms
large now. Much depends upon Rajapaksa regaining public credibility for his
coalition to win.
A number of
ifs and buts, however, make the post election environment hazy .
The three “ifs”
1.
If the UPFA gets a majority in parliament,
pressure on Sirisena would increase to nominate Rajapaksa as prime minister. He
may not able to prevent it if his constituency within the coalition loses out.
2. Even if the UNFGG gets a marginal majority of the seats,
Wickremesinghe has said he would form a national alliance government of all
parties. This could tempt winners from the UPFA to join the government as they
did earlier.
3. Sri Lanka has no anti-defection law. So if neither
coalition wins a majority, whoever can do political horse trading better can
count on forming the government. In the past, Rajapaksa has proved to be a past
master in such “under the table” deals.
The four “buts”
1.
Both Rajapaksa-loyalists and
Sirisena-loyalists of the UPFA are working to undermine each other’s
candidates. This is likely to reduce the coalition's winning chances. This
could, moreover, give a free run to Wickremesinghe's coalition particularly
with his added attraction of national government.
2. Last presidential election showed that massive turnout of
minority voters could decide the winner. But parliamentary election in the 22
electoral districts that elect 195 members is different from presidential poll;
there are number of local issues which come into play in this election. How
many of them would be drawn to the polling booths now? The electoral system has
also been modified for this election. Both Wickremesinghe and the minority
parties appear to be aware of this and have been focusing on national issues.
But how much it will excite the minority voters to exercise their franchise?
3. Rajapaksa has been plugging Sinhala 'nationalism' in his
campaign. He was defeated in 2009 despite flogging the nationalist credentials
because allegations of corruption and misuse of power had clouded his image.
Has he regained the credibility of Sinhala voters who had generally
supported him? More importantly, would the swing voters prefer his
reincarnation as prime minister?
4. The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) has always
managed to win most of the seats in the northern and eastern parts of the
country. However, it always had internal differences regarding the struggle for
preserving the Tamil identity. With the exit of the Tamil Tigers (LTTE), the
goal of the Tamils recovering from the post-war trauma is to survive rather
than pursue the quest for a Tamil Eelam. The TNA had not been able to deliver
its election promises in the past due to both Colombo's inaction and its own
inability to articulate a common agenda. TNA's internal differences have now
become deeper; how much it would affect its performance? Wickremesinghe
has said that he supported a federal solution for Tamil issue which is one of
the articles of faith of TNA. But the moot question is how much TNA can push it
through even if it wins most of the seats? In the past it failed because it had
not developed the fine art of political opportunism. In a parliament without
either coalition winning a majority, can it change its style of politics?
By Tuesday afternoon the picture will clear
on who is winning and who is losing. And the great game of horse trading may
well begin after that.
Courtesy: India Today Opinion portal
DailyO http://www.dailyo.in/politics/sri-lanka-elections-mahinda-rajapaksa-maithripala-sirisena-ranil-wickremesinghe/story/1/5711.html
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