Col R Hariharan
[This is an extract of a brief interview
with an Indian TV news channel recorded
on August 13, 2015 on China and Sri
Lanka general elections being held on August 17, 20015.]
Q: China is looking at the entry of
Rajapaksa in the (election) race with a lot of interest. Since January when
Sirisena took over, despite polite noises, China has lost out its position of
strength (gained) under Rajapaksa. So do you think China would definitely root
for Rajapaksa as PM?
A: Generally, China does not interfere in internal
affairs in other countries. That would apply to Sri Lanka elections also. But
it has a huge financial and strategic stakes in Sri Lanka. So
definitely China would be happy to see Rajapaksa back in power as PM because it
has an excellent personal equation with him. Apart from this, China’s major
projects in Sri Lanka, in which it has invested over $ 4.6 billion, have been
stalled after the new government came to power. Though some of the projects are
now being resumed, there had been no progress in some others like the Colombo
Port reclamation project costing $ 1.4 billion. This project has strategic
relevance for China as it would help China gain total control of over 300 acres
of reclaimed land close to the mouth of the Colombo harbour. China
would definitely like these projects completed without any further delay.
Q: In case Rajapaksa returns to power, what
possible impact it would be having on Indo-Sri Lanka relations, given
Rajapaksa’s tilt towards China?
A: Though Rajapaksa would probably like to adopt a
pro-China policy, he is well known for his pragmatism. Prime Minister Narendra
Modi's visit to Sri Lanka has paid a lot of dividend. India's concerns have now
been brought to the fore.
And we can see their impact in his UPFA coalition’s
manifesto. In the words of Dr Dayan Jayatilleka, foreign policy advisor of
UPFA, “specific mention has been made about India in the foreign policy segment
of the UPFA manifesto. Good relations with India is axiomatic. Good relations
with India will be a corner stone of the UPFA foreign policy.”
Moreover, Rajapaksa knows that after the recent
constitutional amendment, the freewheeling days of executive presidency are
over, and the prime minister is more accountable to the parliament now. So he
would probably take these aspects into consideration. But
first, he has to win the election.
Q: If Rajapaksa does not make it, is it the
end of his political career?
A: No. I don’t think so. Rajapaksa is a political veteran
who has loyal followers in Sri Lanka and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). So
if he fails it would be a major political setback; but not curtains for him.
What must be worrying for him are the two cases of misappropriation of public
money including employees provident fund which has been filed against him the
court for legal action. Equally damaging to his reputation could be the
Tajudeen murder case which was hushed up during his regime; Rajapaksa’s son
Namal Rajapaksa's name has figured in the case. That must be worrying him
because they would affect his public credibility.
(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military
Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of
the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the
South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E- mail:
haridirect@gmail.com Blog: www.col.hariharan.info)
Courtesy: Chennai Centre for China Studies C3S Paper No
0155/2015 dated August 13, 2015 http://www.c3sindia.org/srilanka/5166
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