Col R Hariharan
With a week to go
before Sri Lanka people elect a new parliament, former president Mahinda
Rajapaksa predicted the United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA), which had
fielded him, to win “up to” 117 seats. However, a pre-election survey showed
only 27.5 percent voters preferred him over his bĂȘte noir and prime minister
Ranil Wickremesinghe, leader of the rival United National Front for Good
Governance (UNFGG), who led the survey with a hefty near 40 percent
preference.
The secret of
Rajapaksa’s confidence may not be solely due to the good luck charm - an
elephant hair bracelet – he is seen wearing these days. Nor it can be
astrological prediction that let him down badly in the presidential poll.
The survey
conducted by the Centre for Policy Analysis end July showed Tamil and Muslim
minority voters who handed him a defeat in the presidential election continue
to be firm supporters of Wickremesinghe. However, it must be consoling for the
former president to know that he remained the favourite of Sinhala voters with
36 percent support, while Wickremesinghe trailed him with 31.9 percent support.
Probably it was
the Sinhala voter-support and the impressive line-up of UPFA leaders including
some of the senior stalwarts of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), who turned
up in his support on the stage with him probably encouraged Rajapaksa’s
optimism at the press conference. Their support for him, despite their leader
President Maithripala Sirisena’s dĂ©nouement of Rajapaksa, was probably
heartwarming for the former president. He was so sure of UPFA getting a
majority that he dismissed the idea of forming a national government as
suggested by the United National Party (UNP) leader Wickremesinghe. Rajapaksa
said it only showed the lack of confidence of his opponent.
The UPFA election
manifesto for a change seems to be more voter friendly than in the past with
the coalition opening the social media network to welcome interactive feedback
from the voters. It is a welcome change from the days when Rajapaksa remained
the sole fountainhead of wisdom of the coalition (has it changed?).
Despite
Rajapaksa’s confidence the odds do not seem to favour him. His problems are
more serious than Wickremesinghe’s. Rajapaksa is contesting an election when he
is out of office for the first time after he became president in 2005. Now he
has neither favours to trade for political support nor powers to command the
official machinery that aided his election campaigns in the past.
Government officials openly canvassed in support of Rajapaksa in his heydays. When he contested the presidential poll for the second time, the then army commander appeared on the TV in his support! But the electoral environment has changed now.
Police and
election commission have remained neutral as far as possible. Army commander Lt
Gen Crisanthe De Silva has issued a series of orders to prevent service
personnel from engaging in political activities during the election lest they
are lured by political parties canvassing for their support. The restrictions on
service personnel include even to expressing their views in the social media
network or allowing the use of army video footage for political propaganda.
Army Headquarters has warned that punitive action would be taken against those contravening the orders. These orders could hurt Rajapaksa more than his opponents, as his military victory against the Tamil Tigers in 2009 had earned him more admirers among armed forces and their families than his opponents.
Army Headquarters has warned that punitive action would be taken against those contravening the orders. These orders could hurt Rajapaksa more than his opponents, as his military victory against the Tamil Tigers in 2009 had earned him more admirers among armed forces and their families than his opponents.
A second aspect is the continuing internal squabbles between Rajapaksa loyalists and anti-Rajapaksa factions that have paralysed the internal party apparatus. The convening of the SLFP central committee meeting has been suspended till after the election through a court order! This has produced an anachronistic situation with the two factions openly working against each other rather than focusing on winning the election! Former president Chandrika Kumaratunga as well as President Sirisena have continued to remain in SLFP despite their stout opposition to Rajapaksa’s candidature. And they seem to be doing their bit to undermine the party support to Rajapaksa.
Ms
Kumaratunga had been more direct in her attack on Rajapaksa; she has accused
him of spreading racism and using religion to achieve political ends. Though Sirisena
has said he would remain neutral, he has repeatedly appealed to the people for
carrying forward the changes ushered in January 8 with the defeat of Rajapaksa
and vote for corruption free government.
In
fact, at the farewell ministerial meeting of the cabinet, Sirisena told the
outgoing cabinet that he was looking forward to work with them again to carry
forward his January 8 agenda clearly hinting his support to the United National
Party (UNP) led coalition.
President
Sirisena has continued to be firmly opposed to appointing Rajapaksa as prime
minister even if the UPFA wins a majority and chooses him as the prime
ministerial candidate. So we can expect “UPFA and SLFP Logjam-II” to be enacted
even if Rajapaksa turns defeat into victory.
But more damaging
to Rajapaksa are the skeletons tumbling out of the cupboards locked up during
his regime. The latest allegation relates to the suspected murder of Sri
Lanka’s rugby star Wasim Thajudeen whose body was found burnt inside his car in
a Colombo suburb on May 17, 2012. Though at that time, the police closed the
case as accidental death, Minister Dr Rajitha Senaratne had alleged that three
Special Task Force (STF) personnel attached to Presidential Security Division at
that time were involved in the murder. So the charred body was exhumed after
the CID obtained a court order for further investigations as they considered it
a murder. Evidently, there were a number of lapses in the earlier police
investigation as many pieces of evidence were not considered. The CID
conducting the investigations for the second time said Thajudeen was attacked
with a sharp object in the neck and beaten with a blunt object.
There were scenes
of low comedy as bumbling politicians from both UPFA and UNF camps traded
threats and insults freely. When SLFP spokesman Dilan Perera took out four
bottles of poison and invited the UNFGG members to drink them, UNP’s Harin
Fernando retaliated by brandishing two cans of poison at a news conference and
said Dilan Perera was welcome to drink them. Rival group of gangsters fired
shots at an election meeting of the UNFGG in the early stages of the campaign.
But overall probably there were less violent incidents this time perhaps due to
greater vigilance and shorter gestation period for the election
process.
Ranil
Wickremesinghe heading the UNFGG has not started counting the seats he would
win; but he must be beaming at the survey results. He has entered the election
fray under a cloud of corruption surrounding the Central Bank bond issue. How
much it would affect the chances of the UNFGG, particularly with his emphasis
on clean governance, remains the big question. As the pre-poll survey was
conducted end July, generally swing votes can be expected to make all the
difference between defeat and victory. So it is to be seen whether he would
continue to retain the support base that helped him to engineer the defeat of
Rajapaksa in the presidential poll.
The UNFGG
manifesto like all election manifestos in Sri Lanka is tall on talk and full of
promises. Whether it can deliver them particularly when the economy is cash
strapped is the moot point; this applies to all political parties. But the most
disappointing was the Tamil National Alliance(TNA) manifesto. It started with
the traditional ‘manifesto focus’ on the history of Tamil struggle for equity
that had been repeated many times, rather than bringing up front the burning
issues of Tamils which have been tucked towards the end. How much it would
impress the impatient younger generation of voters who are tired of pedantic
style of politics and its ponderous ways remains to be seen. But the TNA’s
advantage is it enjoys the support of Global Tamil Forum (GTF), perhaps the
largest Tamil Diaspora body.
There are two
other dark horses challenging the political free run TNA had been enjoying in
the North and East. The ‘Crusaders for Democracy’ a new outfit formed of former
cadres of the LTTE is contesting the election as an independent group focusing
on the grievances of Tamils in the post war scene. It was cobbled by
Vithyatharan, former editor of Uthayan, Jaffna Tamil daily, and political
wheeler-dealer after the TNA refused to field any former LTTE cadres as its
candidate. The entry of rehabilitated Tiger cadres in the political arena is a
welcome sign that Tamils are at last coming to terms with the political reality
of Sri Lanka after 2009. But TNA’s bigger challenge could be from veteran
Tamil politician GajendraKumar Ponnambalam-led Tamil National People’s Front
(TNPF).
The UPFA
campaign, de facto led by Rajapaksa, seems to have learnt a few things from his
defeat in the presidential election as acknowledged by Dr Dayan Jayatilleka,
the coalition’s foreign policy advisor, when he met the foreign correspondents
at an interaction. He said “the foreign policy of the UPFA will be a series of
concentric circles, the closest circle being the immediate neighbourhood.
Specific mention has been made about India in the foreign policy segment of the
UPFA manifesto. Good relations with India is axiomatic. Good relations with
India will be a corner stone of the UPFA’s foreign policy.” On relations with
other countries he said "the first circle in the series of concentric
circles will be South Asia; the second will be Asia; the third will be
Euro-Asia, the fourth will be the Global South and finally the world.”
Dayan’s foreign policy construct is logical; he had always valued India’s special status in Sri Lanka’s foreign policy firmament. But in the past, Rajapaksa had shown neither the patience nor the interest in such a nuanced approach to policy making. Can he change his style of work? Let us wait for the election results for the question to become relevant.
(Col R Hariharan, a
retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian
Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with
the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan. info )
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