Col R Hariharan
Even in the midst of all political gerrymandering going on in
Sri Lanka as election fever is heating up, China must be one country praying
(but do Communist nations pray?) for former president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s
successful return as prime minister after the country elects a new parliament
on August 17, 2015. When the people elected President Maithripala Sirisena in
preference to Rajapaksa in the presidential poll last January, they also
derailed China’s strategic gravy train that chugged along smoothly in Sri Lanka
during
Rajapaksa’s second term as president.
President Sirisena the new incumbent froze all China-aided mega
projects notably the $1.4 billion Colombo Port City Project signed up during Rajapaksa-rule,
pending their review for procedural lapses and corruption investigation. However,
since then both the countries have tried to understand, if not redress, each other’s
concerns also on the twin issues of high cost of Chinese loans and financial
viability of the mega projects. There was a lot of billing and cooing about
their friendship when President Sirisena and foreign minister Mangala
Samaraweera visited Beijing, probably kindling hopes of China to repair its
relations with Sri Lanka.
Probably China became more optimistic
about regaining its position of primacy in the island nation after former
president Mahinda Rajapaksa, China’s favourite Sri Lankan was chosen by the United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) coalition to contest the
parliament election. There were also other indications of Sri Lanka warming up
to China.
Sri Lanka President had inaugurated on June 7, 2015 the
construction work on the China funded Matara-Hambantota expressway which
provides a link to the Colombo-Matara expressway via Galle funded by the
Chinese. China’s Ambassador to Colombo had expressed satisfaction over the
commencement of the work on the project, which would create job opportunities
for the people, in an interview to the DailyFT, Colombo.[i] China’s exim bank had
funded the $180 million Galle-Matara expressway.[ii] Phase 2 of the Hambantota
port project has been inaugurated; on completion it would increase the port
capacity to handle 12 ships at a time from two at present.[iii]
On the defence front also there had been no let up in China-Sri
Lanka cooperation. Special Forces and commandos of China and Sri Lanka army
have just concluded the three-week long exercise “Silk Route 2015” to hone up
their special operations skills.[iv] Last month, a Chinese
military delegation headed by a Major General has carried out a review of the
ongoing Chinese funded auditorium complex in Sri Lanka Military Academy at
Diyatalawa.[v]
China also
appears to have realized the need for relationship building with people at the
grass root level. Two Chinese companies - the China Communications Construction Company Colombo Port City
Project Company and the China Harbor Sri Lanka Area Company donated $14,400
towards constructing four wells to provide clean drinking water to the people in war-torn in Puthukkudiyiruppu
in northern Sri Lanka the Xinhua reported.[vi]
So, China was probably not amused to hear Minister for Justice Wijayadasa Rajapakshe’s
announcement on June 20, 2015 that the Colombo port reclamation project would be
allowed to progress only after revising the contract signed by the previous
government.[vii] Addressing the press,
the minister said the government decision was to prevent any negative impact on Sri Lanka and other
neighbouring countries, especially India, before resuming work on the Colombo
project; this indicated Colombo’s positive response to India’s concerns
expressed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s maiden visit to Sri Lanka in
May 2015.
If there was any doubt India was
influencing the decision, the minister’s rationale for the decision cleared it.
He said “as of the agreements, the outright ownership of over 350 acres of land
had been given to the Chinese Company. This is totally against the Lands
Ordinance of the country. If the project had been carried out as of that
agreement, the Sri Lankans may need a visa to enter that land and obtain
permission to use the air space over that land. We would not let that happen.
President Maithripala Sirisena during his visit to China talked to the Chinese President
over the matter. We will only carry forward this project after permanently
rectifying its loopholes.”
India which accounts for nearly 70
percent of the Port’s traffic had pointed out its strategic concerns at China
gaining sovereign control over a large part of the reclaimed land very close to
the port. The U.S. which had been
getting cosy with the Sirisena government also probably had similar strategic
concerns.
Though President Sirisena’s government had assured the Chinese about Sri Lanka’s ever lasing friendship with China, the fractures in their relations would take time to heal because Sri Lanka would like to dilute its dependence upon China.
Sri Lanka’s
external affairs minister Mangala Samaraweera on a visit to Japan touched upon this
aspect in an interview to the Japanese news channel NHK on June 18, 2015.[viii] He said the defeated
President Rajapaksa had promoted a foreign policy that relied on China whereas
his government was trying to follow a balanced policy with all countries
including China. Though China had
overtaken Japan as the biggest source of assistance in 2009, the Chinese aid
led to rampant corruption under the previous government. He said the Colombo
Port city project may not have followed the appropriate procedures and was being
reviewed. And the project is still
limping.
Another reason
could be to negotiate cheaper loans to get out of the high interest Chinese
debts. In fact, the Central Bank Governor Arjuna Mahendran has recently said
that the government was in the process of reviewing the Hambantota hub project
and trying to improve the existing harbor and airport facility in Colombo would
be a better option for reasons for economy.
Even if Rajapaksa
comes back to power as empowered prime minister, he may not be able to put the
clock back on Sri Lanka-China relations to the same cosy level it used to be. This
was indicated by Rajapaksa in his first ever question and answer session on the
Facebook page on July 23, 2015, while answering a pointed question on China.
Asked whether he would improve relations with China if elected as Prime
Minister, Rajapaksa said: “not only China, we will work to improve our
relations with all our friends including the West.”[ix]
There is no doubt
Prime Minister Modi’s initiative to build a win-win relationship with Sri Lanka
had created a favourable climate for Sirisena government to balance its
relations with China. So much would depend upon how India follows up on the
promises made during Modi’s Sri Lanka visit. As of now the signs are favourable;
but jn the past, India had not covered itself with glory on timely delivery of
its promises.
China would never
give up on Sri Lanka as it has too big a strategic stake in Indian Ocean and
South Asia. Sri Lanka is an important pivot for China’s power projection in
Indian Ocean as well as an irreplaceable
investment destination for the success of President Xi Jinping’s pet project -
the 20th Century Maritime route. Last but not least, Sri Lanka is
the vanguard for India’s peninsular defence and power projection in Indian
Ocean.
The writing on
the wall is clear: India simply cannot afford to take it easy on the work in
progress in building win-win relations with Sri Lanka, whosoever comes to power
in the island nation.
(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military
Intelligence officer, is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group, and the
Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail:colhari@yahoo.com
Website: www.col.hariharan.info )
Courtesy:
Chennai Centre for China Studies C3S Paper No. 0148/2015 dated August 1, 2015
END NOTES
[i]
DailyFT, Colombo, July 6, 2015 http://www.ft.lk/article/441835/China-happy-with-extension-of-Southern-Expressway--says-a-big-socioeconomic-boost
[ii]
Global Times, June 7, 2015 http://www.globaltimes.cn/world/central-south-asia/index10.html#list
[iii]
Daily News, Colombo, http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=business/hambantota-port-second-stage-water-filling-saturday#sthash.RZRUHzax.
[iv]
June 22, 2015 http://adaderana.lk/
[vi]China
donates to provide clean water for northern Sri Lanka June 18, 2015 www.xinhua.org/english/
[vii]
Daily News, Colombo, July 20, 2015 http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=local/colombo-port-city-contract-agreements-be-revised
[viii] FM: Sri Lanka to dilute dependence on China, NHK World
Jun. 19, 2015 http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/english/news/20150619_09.html
[ix]
UPFA is not divided at all –Mahinda, July 23 2015
www.adaderana.lk/23-7-15
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