Monday, 3 August 2015

Sri Lanka security perspectives: July 2015

Col R Hariharan                                                              

Election scene heats up

A total of 6151 candidates from 21 registered political parties and 201 independent groups will be contesting for 196 district seats in the parliamentary elections to be held on August 17, 2015. The United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA), the United National Front for Good Governance (UNFGG) newly formed by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe-led United National Party (UNP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) are contesting all 22 electoral districts.

Former president Mahinda Rajapaksa out manoeuvred President Maithripala Sirisena (also chief of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party –SLFP), to secure UPFA nomination to contest the parliamentary election. But Rajapaksa loyalists celebrating his nomination were shocked when Sirisena addressing the nation said that he was against Rajapaksa and predicted he would lose in the general election.

Explaining his opposition to the nomination, Sirisena in a detailed statement on July 14 said irrespective of the party that comes to power, he wanted those who could carry his pledges forward to be elected.  However, the President said he would remain neutral at the general election and would not back former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. He said that he was against Rajapaksa and that there were many seniors he could appoint as Prime Minister in the event the SLFP won the election.

Though the UPFA coalition was divided between pro and anti Rajapaksa factions, it managed to put up a candidate list that reflected the differences between the two camps. However, even if the UPFA wins a majority, in all likelihood Sirisena in his capacity as President would not appoint Rajapaksa as Prime Minister as indicated in his statement.

However, Rajapaksa had tried to play down the differences and maintained that the UPFA was not divided at all. He said he did not form his own party to contest the election because he was not prepared to abandon the SLFP for personal gain. He said he came forward to contest “at the request of the majority of my party and the UPFA and most importantly the people of this country.”

Showing his readiness to accommodate fresh, Rajapaksa said “during the last few months we have started to look at things in a fresh manner and there would be new ideas which are essential for the development of the nation which we will adopt during the next five years.”

On Sri Lanka’s relations with China, Rajapaksa said “not only China, we will work to improve our relations with all our friends including the West.” On minorities, the former president said “a special charter will be floated to get opinions and ideas to improve harmony among all communities from the grass root level with special programmes.”

The UPFA released its election manifesto on June 28. Based on the theme “Assurance for Future” the manifesto describes how the UPFA government would implement plans and programmes for socio-economic development of the country during the next five years.

The UNP has formed UNFGG coalition with dissidents from the UPFA who felt betrayed after it nominated Rajapaksa as a candidate. The coalition now includes the rightwing Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) and its rival the All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) and the Tamil People’s Alliance (TPA). The coalition is contesting on the same plank of corruption free governance it had used successfully in the presidential election.

The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) is contesting in the northern and eastern provinces on its own. It has the support of the Global Tamil Forum (GTF), the largest Diaspora Tamil body. However, the TNA is likely to extend support to the UNFGG in other areas.

Election prospects of the rival coalitions appar to be wide open. However, it seems certain that President would not nominate Rajapaksa as Prime Minister even if the UPFA wins a majority. According to a media report, Sirisena is likely to nominate the UPFA general secretary Susil Premajayantha for the post.

Electoral violations

In a major incident of election violence, one woman was killed and 12 others hospitalized when unidentified persons opened fire on a group of UNP supporters carrying out election campaign in a Colombo suburb on July 31, 2015. Finance Minister Ravi Karunanayake had just left the venue when the fire was opened. Sri Lanka’s election watchdog Peoples Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL) had received complaints relating to 511 electoral and general law violations till July 27, 2015. These included 35 relating to acts of violence while 41 related to electoral and general law violations.
Miscellaneous
NPC: Northern Provincial Council chief minister CV Wigneswaran in a statement has said that he would not engage in any political propaganda supporting the TNA candidates. Instead he would take a neutral stance. Explaining his stand the chief minister said although the TNA chose him as the chief minister, “it is not ethical for me to support them at the forthcoming general elections.” He said “those elected by the people should work with dedication and also upholding unity. I believe that priority should be given to the progress and well being of the people than the parties.”

Arrest of former LTTE cadre: Tamil Nadu police have arrested a former LTTE cadre Krishnakumar carrying 75 cyanide capsules, four global positioning systems, seven mobile phones and Indian and Sri Lankan currency in Uchipulli coast in Tiruchi district in Tamil Nadu. Two local Tamils who brought him from Madurai bus stand in a car to Uchipulli have also been arrested. According police sources the former LTTE cadre was brought for his clandestine return to Jaffna by sea. The report of the arrest has set off fresh speculation of reviving LTTE activity in Sri Lanka.
Written on July 31, 2015   

(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com   Blog: http://col.hariharan.info)  

Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, Vol 9 No 7 August 2015 www.security-risks.com


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