Col R Hariharan | 30-4-2018
|Courtesy: South Asia Security Trends, May 2018
If the
Joint Opposition (JO) and the pro-Rajapaksa Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP)
had hoped to break up the ruling coalition through the No Confidence Motion
(NCM) against Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, the gambit failed. The
motion could secure only 78 votes against 122 members who opposed it. Twenty
six MPs apparently could not make up their mind and absented themselves at the
time of voting.
PM
Wickremesinghe used the opportunity to rally the United National Party (UNP) to
defeat the NCM. At a breakfast reception held after the defeat of the NCM, the
PM described the NCM as an attempt not to just oust him but the first step to topple
the National Unity government led by President Sirisena. He said “we have shown
what unity can achieve” and added the party should prepare for the coming
provincial, presidential and parliamentary elections “without getting
distracted by bankrupt opposition politicians, who were desperate to capture
power by hook or crook” a clear reference to pro-Mahinda leaders It is an anachronism the defeat of NCM helped
Wickremesinghe consolidate his leadership position within the UNP and
reorganise the central committee ostensibly to satisfy his distractors within
the party.
The NCM
exercise showed that the ruling coalition despite its inner weaknesses, could
still rally to successfully neutralise the formidable challenge of
pro-Rajapaksa elements within the House. How long its fragile unity can sustain
it in the face of the SLPP building upon its present strength is a moot point? The vote also exposed the limitations of the
JO/SLPP to dislodge the shaky unity coalition from power, despite their
internal bickering. Even crossing over of 16 SLFP members from Sirisena’s ranks
to vote for the NCM did not help it to succeed. The absence of 26 members from
the house, showed the JO’s ‘last mile’ weakness in rallying the support of the
fence sitters.
The NCM
exposed many weakness within the present political frame work – growing lack of
trust between, not only the leaders of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and
the UNP but also among the rank and file in carrying on with the coalition
rule. President Maithripala Sirisena’s ambivalent stand on the NCM showed his
unhappiness with the PM and the UNP partners, despite all his affirmations of
unity later on. Similarly, his
firefighting exercise to keep the SLFP flock intact after 16 members who voted
for the NCM walked over to the JO, seems to have satisfied none. The promised
overhaul of the party in May 2018 to resolve the inner contradictions within
the SLFP is waiting to become a reality. The party hopes put up a unified show
of strength on the occasion of the May Day celebrations to be held at Batticaloa
on May 7, 2018. However, considering the state of confusion within the party, the
party may not live up to the expectations after May Day rally.
However,
we can expect the wrangling within the SLFP leadership sitting on both sides of
parliament to continue. Probably it suits PM Wickremesinghe as he may find the
politically weakened President more manageable. In any case, he has come out
successful in managing the internal squabbles of UNP, though grumblings on
undemocratic functioning of the party will continue.
The
vote also posed a dilemma to the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) leadership. However, the 16-strong TNA voted against the
NCM after it is said to have received Wickremesinghe’s commitment over its
demands including to push through the new constitution. With Sirisena’s
leadership weakened, TNA had little option but to support the UNP leader as a
vote in support of the NCM could have paved the way for Rajapaksa to stage a
strong comeback. It is doubtful whether Wickremesinghe would be able to live up
to his promise to the TNA as some of the demands like a federal constitution or
the merger of northern and eastern provinces would not be acceptable to the
Sinhala majority, which has become the support base for the SLPP.
The
logical course to Yahapalanaya has to have three essential ingredients – a new
constitution incorporating systemic and structural changes for good governance,
abolition of executive presidency and resolution of what Tamils call the
National Question –autonomy and equity for minority regions. For the time
being, both the national parties appear to be comfortable with dragging their
feet on pursuing the core issues of Yahapalanaya. However, due to the uncertain
future, it is doubtful the coalition would be able to act on principled stand on
all the three key issues.
Making
of the new constitution has become even more difficult now as the delay in the
process is increasingly polarizing the community on ethnic lines. Other systemic issues like the rationale for
abolishing the proportional representation and preferential vote (PR) system and
the power of the provincial councils are likely to loom large when the country
goes to polls to elect new provincial councils
Overall,
Sri Lanka seems to be heading for an uncertain future which could weaken its
economic performance and affect governance as well as erode international
credibility of the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government.
Col R Hariharan, a retired MI officer, served as the head of
Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He
is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the International
Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai. E-mail: haridirect@gmail.com Blog: http://col.hariharan.info
No comments:
Post a Comment